Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 02/08, 20:00

Prediction: San Martin De Burzaco vs Deportivo Merlo

Team pages: San Martin De Burzaco · Deportivo Merlo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

San Martin De Burzaco1.27

Deportivo Merlo1.23

1X2

36% 31% 34%

San Martin De Burzaco Draw Deportivo Merlo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

San Martin De Burzaco 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDDDDWLL

Deportivo Merlo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLDWDL

Head-to-head

San Martin De Burzaco 1–1–4 Deportivo Merlo (6 last)

Deportivo Merlo0-4San Martin De Burzaco
San Martin De Burzaco1-3Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo1-0San Martin De Burzaco
Deportivo Merlo1-0San Martin De Burzaco
San Martin De Burzaco1-2Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo0-0San Martin De Burzaco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Martin De Burzaco 1478 · Deportivo Merlo 1454

	San Martin De Burzaco	Draw	Deportivo Merlo
Our model	36%	30%	34%
Market	35%	32%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Merlo: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Martin De Burzaco	Deportivo Merlo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.6 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.4	1.2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.4	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X2.80

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.60▲	Bet365 2.60
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.70 → 2.63▼	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:33 +4’	2.55	2.80	2.70
17:58 +7’	2.60▲	2.80	2.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · San Martin De Burzaco 1–1–4 Deportivo Merlo

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	0-4 HT 0-2	San Martin De Burzaco
16/11/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	San Martin De Burzaco	1-3 HT 1-0	Deportivo Merlo
22/06/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	1-0 HT 1-0	San Martin De Burzaco
01/09/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	1-0 HT 0-0	San Martin De Burzaco
14/04/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	San Martin De Burzaco	1-2 HT 1-1	Deportivo Merlo
09/11/19 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	0-0 HT 0-0	San Martin De Burzaco

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	28	15	8	5	40	19	53
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	28	14	10	4	38	20	52
3	Talleres Remedios	27	15	7	5	31	13	52
4	Atletico Camioneros	27	14	8	5	33	17	50
5	Villa Dalmine	27	13	10	4	30	14	49
6	Sportivo Italiano	27	12	9	6	27	21	45
7	Real Pilar	27	11	7	9	31	30	40
8	Club Comunicaciones	27	10	8	9	31	28	38
9	Deportivo Armenio	28	10	8	10	31	33	38
10	Deportivo Laferrere	27	10	8	9	29	32	38
11	Deportivo Merlo	27	9	9	9	32	40	36
12	Argentino Merlo	27	9	8	10	26	25	35
12	San Martin De Burzaco	27	8	11	8	26	25	35
14	CS Dock Sud	27	7	11	9	27	25	32
15	Argentino Quilmes	27	7	11	9	25	28	32
16	Deportivo Liniers	27	6	10	11	18	27	28
17	CA Brown de Adrogue	28	6	10	12	18	30	28
18	CSD Flandria	27	7	6	14	21	33	27
19	Defensores Unidos	27	5	11	11	21	30	26
20	Villa San Carlos	27	5	10	12	26	34	25
21	UAI Urquiza	27	3	16	8	13	23	25
22	CA Ituzaingo	27	1	8	18	18	45	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Martin De Burzaco	Deportivo Merlo
Villa San Carlos	0-0 D	1-2 L
Deportivo Liniers	1-1 D	1-1 D
Real Pilar	0-0 D	3-2 W
UAI Urquiza	0-0 D	0-0 D
Villa Dalmine	0-2 L	1-2 L
Excursionistas	0-2 L	0-5 L
Arsenal de Sarandi	2-0 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: San Martin De Burzaco (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Martin De Burzaco

WLLDDDDWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
18/07	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	10	7	L
15/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
10/07	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
05/07	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
27/06	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
20/06	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
13/06	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
06/06	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
01/06	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	7	6	W

Deportivo Merlo

WLDLLLDWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
18/07	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	4	10	D
15/07	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-2	0	6	W
10/07	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
04/07	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	8	5	L
27/06	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-3	0-5	1	2	L
21/06	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-3	2-4	2	9	L
15/06	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-2	3	6	D
06/06	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
03/06	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Martin De Burzaco vs Deportivo Merlo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Martin De Burzaco win (36%). Probabilities: San Martin De Burzaco 36%, draw 31%, Deportivo Merlo 34%.

How many goals are expected in San Martin De Burzaco vs Deportivo Merlo?

The model expects 2.5 goals (San Martin De Burzaco 1.27 · Deportivo Merlo 1.23), with a 60% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in San Martin De Burzaco vs Deportivo Merlo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.