Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 18/07, 20:00
Prediction: Excursionistas vs Argentino Quilmes
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Excursionistas1.82
Argentino Quilmes0.81
1X2
Excursionistas
Draw
Argentino Quilmes
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Excursionistas
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Argentino Quilmes
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Excursionistas
0–3–3
Argentino Quilmes
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Excursionistas 1546 · Argentino Quilmes 1525
| Excursionistas | Draw | Argentino Quilmes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Market | 59% | 26% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Argentino Quilmes: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Excursionistas | Argentino Quilmes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.2 | 1.9 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.2 | 5.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Excursionistas 0–3–3 Argentino Quilmes
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Argentino Quilmes | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Excursionistas |
| 28/06/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Argentino Quilmes |
| 09/02/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Argentino Quilmes | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Excursionistas |
| 02/12/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Argentino Quilmes | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Excursionistas |
| 24/11/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Argentino Quilmes |
| 26/10/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Argentino Quilmes | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Excursionistas |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 17 | 48 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 36 | 19 | 47 |
| 3 | Villa Dalmine | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 30 | 14 | 47 |
| 4 | Talleres Remedios | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 13 | 46 |
| 5 | Atletico Camioneros | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 17 | 44 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 25 | 20 | 41 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 28 | 37 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 29 | 36 |
| 9 | San Martin De Burzaco | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 25 | 21 | 35 |
| 10 | Club Comunicaciones | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 26 | 35 |
| 11 | Deportivo Laferrere | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 30 | 35 |
| 12 | Deportivo Merlo | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 37 | 35 |
| 13 | Argentino Merlo | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 22 | 34 |
| 14 | Argentino Quilmes | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 28 | 30 |
| 15 | CS Dock Sud | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 28 |
| 16 | Deportivo Liniers | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 25 | 26 |
| 17 | CSD Flandria | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 31 | 26 |
| 18 | UAI Urquiza | 25 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 24 |
| 19 | Defensores Unidos | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 29 | 24 |
| 20 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 28 | 24 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 25 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 24 | 31 | 22 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 25 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 43 | 10 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Excursionistas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 10/07 | Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 04/07 | CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 27/06 | Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
3-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 13/06 | Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 06/06 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 27/05 | Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
Argentino Quilmes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 10/07 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 05/07 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 28/06 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 11 | W |
| 27/05 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Excursionistas vs Argentino Quilmes?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Excursionistas win (60%). Probabilities: Excursionistas 60%, draw 25%, Argentino Quilmes 15%.
How many goals are expected in Excursionistas vs Argentino Quilmes?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Excursionistas 1.82 · Argentino Quilmes 0.81), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Excursionistas vs Argentino Quilmes?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.