Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 25/07, 22:00

Prediction: CA Brown de Adrogue vs Argentino Merlo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.27Total

CA Brown de Adrogue1.14

Argentino Merlo1.12

1X2

34% 32% 33%

CA Brown de Adrogue Draw Argentino Merlo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CA Brown de Adrogue 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWDDLL

Argentino Merlo 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDWWDWLD

Head-to-head

CA Brown de Adrogue 1–1–1 Argentino Merlo (3 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Brown de Adrogue 1474 · Argentino Merlo 1511

	CA Brown de Adrogue	Draw	Argentino Merlo
Our model	35%	31%	34%
Market	34%	33%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Brown de Adrogue	Argentino Merlo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	1.2 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	5.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.63

X2.70

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:19 +1’	2.63	2.70	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Brown de Adrogue 1–1–1 Argentino Merlo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Brown de Adrogue
16/11/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	2-4 HT 2-2	CA Brown de Adrogue
21/06/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	0-2 HT 0-0	Argentino Merlo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arsenal de Sarandi	26	14	8	4	37	19	50
2	Excursionistas	26	14	7	5	37	17	49
3	Talleres Remedios	26	14	7	5	29	13	49
4	Villa Dalmine	26	13	9	4	30	14	48
5	Atletico Camioneros	26	13	8	5	31	17	47
6	Sportivo Italiano	26	12	8	6	27	21	44
7	Club Comunicaciones	26	10	8	8	30	26	38
8	Deportivo Laferrere	26	10	8	8	29	30	38
9	Real Pilar	26	10	7	9	29	29	37
10	Deportivo Armenio	26	10	7	9	30	31	37
11	Deportivo Merlo	26	9	9	8	31	38	36
12	San Martin De Burzaco	26	8	11	7	26	23	35
13	Argentino Merlo	26	9	8	9	26	24	35
14	CS Dock Sud	26	7	10	9	26	24	31
15	Argentino Quilmes	26	7	10	9	25	28	31
16	Deportivo Liniers	26	6	9	11	17	26	27
17	CSD Flandria	26	7	5	14	20	32	26
18	Defensores Unidos	26	5	10	11	20	29	25
19	UAI Urquiza	26	3	15	8	12	22	24
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	26	5	9	12	16	29	24
21	Villa San Carlos	26	4	10	12	24	33	22
22	CA Ituzaingo	26	1	7	18	18	45	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Brown de Adrogue	Argentino Merlo
Deportivo Armenio	0-0 D	2-2 D
CSD Flandria	2-0 W	0-1 L
Argentino Quilmes	2-4 L	3-0 W
Defensores Unidos	1-1 D	1-1 D
Club Comunicaciones	1-2 L	3-2 W
CS Dock Sud	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Argentino Merlo (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Brown de Adrogue

LWLDLWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
15/07	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
10/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
04/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
27/06	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
20/06	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-4	6	4	L
13/06	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
06/06	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
30/05	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	0	0	W
27/05	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	12	2	L

Argentino Merlo

LWDDWWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
14/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
10/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	2	10	W
05/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
28/06	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	3-2	2	9	W
21/06	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	3-1	3	4	W
15/06	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-2	1	6	D
06/06	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
31/05	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
26/05	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	3	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Brown de Adrogue vs Argentino Merlo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Brown de Adrogue win (34%). Probabilities: CA Brown de Adrogue 34%, draw 32%, Argentino Merlo 33%.

How many goals are expected in CA Brown de Adrogue vs Argentino Merlo?

The model expects 2.27 goals (CA Brown de Adrogue 1.14 · Argentino Merlo 1.12), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Brown de Adrogue vs Argentino Merlo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.