Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 25/07, 22:00
Prediction: Deportivo Merlo vs Villa San Carlos
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.15Total
Deportivo Merlo1.37
Villa San Carlos0.77
1X2
Deportivo Merlo
Draw
Villa San Carlos
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Merlo
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Villa San Carlos
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Merlo
1–5–0
Villa San Carlos
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Merlo 1474 · Villa San Carlos 1461
| Deportivo Merlo | Draw | Villa San Carlos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Market | 50% | 30% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Merlo | Villa San Carlos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.9 | 0.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.3 | 0.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.2 | 2.7 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Merlo 1–5–0 Villa San Carlos
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Villa San Carlos | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Merlo |
| 12/10/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Villa San Carlos |
| 24/05/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Villa San Carlos | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Merlo |
| 27/07/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Villa San Carlos | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Merlo |
| 10/03/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Villa San Carlos |
| 19/08/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Villa San Carlos |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 37 | 19 | 50 |
| 2 | Excursionistas | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 37 | 17 | 49 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 13 | 49 |
| 4 | Villa Dalmine | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 30 | 14 | 48 |
| 5 | Atletico Camioneros | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 47 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 44 |
| 7 | Club Comunicaciones | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 26 | 38 |
| 8 | Deportivo Laferrere | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 29 | 30 | 38 |
| 9 | Real Pilar | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 29 | 29 | 37 |
| 10 | Deportivo Armenio | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 31 | 37 |
| 11 | Deportivo Merlo | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 31 | 38 | 36 |
| 12 | San Martin De Burzaco | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 23 | 35 |
| 13 | Argentino Merlo | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 24 | 35 |
| 14 | CS Dock Sud | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 24 | 31 |
| 15 | Argentino Quilmes | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 25 | 28 | 31 |
| 16 | Deportivo Liniers | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 26 | 27 |
| 17 | CSD Flandria | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 20 | 32 | 26 |
| 18 | Defensores Unidos | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 20 | 29 | 25 |
| 19 | UAI Urquiza | 26 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 22 | 24 |
| 20 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 29 | 24 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 33 | 22 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 26 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 18 | 45 | 10 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Merlo | Villa San Carlos |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Liniers | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Real Pilar | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| UAI Urquiza | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Villa Dalmine | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Excursionistas | 0-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Villa San Carlos (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Merlo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 15/07 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 10/07 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 15/06 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 27/05 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
Villa San Carlos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 14/07 | Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 10/07 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 04/07 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 13/06 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/06 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 26/05 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Merlo vs Villa San Carlos?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Merlo win (50%). Probabilities: Deportivo Merlo 50%, draw 30%, Villa San Carlos 20%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Merlo vs Villa San Carlos?
The model expects 2.15 goals (Deportivo Merlo 1.37 · Villa San Carlos 0.77), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Merlo vs Villa San Carlos?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.