Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 18/07, 20:00
Prediction: Deportivo Liniers vs Deportivo Merlo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.13Total
Deportivo Liniers1.16
Deportivo Merlo0.97
1X2
Deportivo Liniers
Draw
Deportivo Merlo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Liniers
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Merlo
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Liniers
2–2–1
Deportivo Merlo
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Liniers 1451 · Deportivo Merlo 1483
| Deportivo Liniers | Draw | Deportivo Merlo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 32% | 29% |
| Market | 39% | 33% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.13 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Deportivo Liniers: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Liniers | Deportivo Merlo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.9 | 1.3 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 4.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Liniers 2–2–1 Deportivo Merlo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Liniers |
| 09/07/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Liniers |
| 18/02/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Liniers | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Merlo |
| 10/07/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Liniers |
| 21/02/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Liniers | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Merlo |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 17 | 48 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 36 | 19 | 47 |
| 3 | Villa Dalmine | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 30 | 14 | 47 |
| 4 | Talleres Remedios | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 13 | 46 |
| 5 | Atletico Camioneros | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 17 | 44 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 25 | 20 | 41 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 28 | 37 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 29 | 36 |
| 9 | San Martin De Burzaco | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 25 | 21 | 35 |
| 10 | Club Comunicaciones | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 26 | 35 |
| 11 | Deportivo Laferrere | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 30 | 35 |
| 12 | Deportivo Merlo | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 37 | 35 |
| 13 | Argentino Merlo | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 22 | 34 |
| 14 | Argentino Quilmes | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 28 | 30 |
| 15 | CS Dock Sud | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 28 |
| 16 | Deportivo Liniers | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 25 | 26 |
| 17 | CSD Flandria | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 31 | 26 |
| 18 | UAI Urquiza | 25 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 24 |
| 19 | Defensores Unidos | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 29 | 24 |
| 20 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 28 | 24 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 25 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 24 | 31 | 22 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 25 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 43 | 10 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Liniers | Deportivo Merlo |
|---|---|---|
| Real Pilar | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| UAI Urquiza | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Villa Dalmine | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Excursionistas | 1-4 L | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Liniers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/07 | Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 05/07 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 28/06 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 08/06 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 27/05 | Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
Deportivo Merlo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 10/07 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 15/06 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 27/05 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Liniers vs Deportivo Merlo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Liniers win (39%). Probabilities: Deportivo Liniers 39%, draw 33%, Deportivo Merlo 29%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Liniers vs Deportivo Merlo?
The model expects 2.13 goals (Deportivo Liniers 1.16 · Deportivo Merlo 0.97), with a 54% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Liniers vs Deportivo Merlo?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.