Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 18/07, 20:00
Prediction: San Martin De Burzaco vs Sportivo Italiano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.68Total
San Martin De Burzaco0.85
Sportivo Italiano0.83
1X2
San Martin De Burzaco
Draw
Sportivo Italiano
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
San Martin De Burzaco
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Sportivo Italiano
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Martin De Burzaco
2–3–1
Sportivo Italiano
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Martin De Burzaco 1516 · Sportivo Italiano 1510
| San Martin De Burzaco | Draw | Sportivo Italiano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 37% | 31% |
| Market | 34% | 34% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.68 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours San Martin De Burzaco: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Martin De Burzaco | Sportivo Italiano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.7 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.3 | 5.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Martin De Burzaco 2–3–1 Sportivo Italiano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Sportivo Italiano | 1-2 HT 0-0 | San Martin De Burzaco |
| 04/10/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Sportivo Italiano | 1-0 HT 0-0 | San Martin De Burzaco |
| 20/05/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | San Martin De Burzaco | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sportivo Italiano |
| 29/06/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | San Martin De Burzaco | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sportivo Italiano |
| 11/02/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Sportivo Italiano | 1-1 HT 1-1 | San Martin De Burzaco |
| 10/07/23 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Sportivo Italiano | 0-4 HT 0-1 | San Martin De Burzaco |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 17 | 48 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 36 | 19 | 47 |
| 3 | Villa Dalmine | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 30 | 14 | 47 |
| 4 | Talleres Remedios | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 13 | 46 |
| 5 | Atletico Camioneros | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 17 | 44 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 25 | 20 | 41 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 28 | 37 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 29 | 36 |
| 9 | San Martin De Burzaco | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 25 | 21 | 35 |
| 10 | Club Comunicaciones | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 26 | 35 |
| 11 | Deportivo Laferrere | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 30 | 35 |
| 12 | Deportivo Merlo | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 37 | 35 |
| 13 | Argentino Merlo | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 22 | 34 |
| 14 | Argentino Quilmes | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 28 | 30 |
| 15 | CS Dock Sud | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 28 |
| 16 | Deportivo Liniers | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 25 | 26 |
| 17 | CSD Flandria | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 31 | 26 |
| 18 | UAI Urquiza | 25 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 24 |
| 19 | Defensores Unidos | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 29 | 24 |
| 20 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 28 | 24 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 25 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 24 | 31 | 22 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 25 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 43 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Martin De Burzaco | Sportivo Italiano |
|---|---|---|
| Villa San Carlos | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Liniers | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Real Pilar | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| UAI Urquiza | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Villa Dalmine | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Excursionistas | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Arsenal de Sarandi | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Argentino Merlo | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Sportivo Italiano (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Martin De Burzaco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 10/07 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 05/07 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 27/06 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 13/06 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 01/06 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 27/05 | Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
Sportivo Italiano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 10/07 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 05/07 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 28/06 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 20/06 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 06/06 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 27/05 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Martin De Burzaco vs Sportivo Italiano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a draw (35%). Probabilities: San Martin De Burzaco 33%, draw 35%, Sportivo Italiano 32%.
How many goals are expected in San Martin De Burzaco vs Sportivo Italiano?
The model expects 1.68 goals (San Martin De Burzaco 0.85 · Sportivo Italiano 0.83), with a 54% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in San Martin De Burzaco vs Sportivo Italiano?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.