Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 14/09, 19:00

Prediction: Sirius vs Degerfors

Team pages: Sirius · Degerfors

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Sirius2.29

Degerfors0.97

1X2

66% 21% 13%

Sirius Draw Degerfors

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sirius 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDLLLW

Degerfors 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWWLLW

Head-to-head

Sirius 3–2–1 Degerfors (6 last)

Degerfors0-3Sirius
Sirius1-3Degerfors
Degerfors1-1Sirius
Sirius1-1Degerfors
Sirius3-2Degerfors
Degerfors0-3Sirius

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sirius 1537 · Degerfors 1478

	Sirius	Draw	Degerfors
Our model	66%	20%	14%
Market	66%	21%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sirius (rating 1537 vs 1478).
H2H favours Sirius: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sirius	Degerfors
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.3	2.5 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 08:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.42▲	Pinn 1.42
X	4.75 → 4.50▼	Pinn 4.67 ★
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:38 +3’	1.36	4.75	7.00
07:31 +2’	1.42▲	4.50▼	6.00▼
05:22 +6’	1.44▲	4.50	6.50▲
08:50 +8’	1.42▼	4.50	7.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +10’	1.44	4.61	6.64
18:20 +131’	1.44▲	4.58▼	6.54▼
13:44 +73’	1.42▼	4.67▲	6.81▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sirius 3–2–1 Degerfors

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	0-3 HT 0-0	Sirius
21/09/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	1-3 HT 1-0	Degerfors
03/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	1-1 HT 1-1	Sirius
27/01/24 Club Friendly List	Sirius	1-1 HT 1-0	Degerfors
01/10/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	3-2 HT 0-1	Degerfors
15/07/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	0-3 HT 0-2	Sirius

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	20	14	3	3	48	27	45
2	Djurgarden	20	12	2	6	44	19	38
3	Hammarby	20	11	4	5	45	19	37
4	BK Hacken	21	8	9	4	34	30	33
5	AIK	20	9	5	6	29	31	32
6	Vasteras SK	21	9	5	7	32	35	32
7	Elfsborg	20	8	7	5	28	21	31
8	Malmo FF	20	9	3	8	33	30	30
9	IFK Goteborg	21	8	5	8	30	41	29
10	GAIS	20	7	6	7	25	18	27
11	Brommapojkarna	20	7	6	7	29	32	27
12	Mjällby AIF	20	5	6	9	26	34	21
13	Kalmar FF	20	5	4	11	21	30	19
14	Degerfors	20	5	4	11	19	31	19
15	Orgryte IS	20	3	6	11	23	43	15
16	Halmstad	21	2	5	14	14	39	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sirius	Degerfors
Vasteras SK	1-0 W	0-2 L
Malmo FF	0-1 L	2-1 W
Brommapojkarna	2-2 D	0-2 L
Halmstad	2-0 W	2-0 W
IFK Goteborg	4-1 W	3-0 W
Elfsborg	3-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sirius (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sirius

DWWWWDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
31/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
21/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
15/08	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	3-4	8	5	L
10/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-2	2-2	8	4	D
03/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
26/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	4-1	4	5	W
19/07	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
12/07	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-1	7	1	W
03/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	4-4	9	1	D

Degerfors

LLLLLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	12	3	W
29/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
23/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	0	2	L
16/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	3-0	2	2	W
09/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
02/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
25/07	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
19/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-4	2	1	L
12/07	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	6	8	L
04/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sirius vs Degerfors?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sirius win (66%). Probabilities: Sirius 66%, draw 21%, Degerfors 13%.

How many goals are expected in Sirius vs Degerfors?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Sirius 2.29 · Degerfors 0.97), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sirius vs Degerfors?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.