Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 25/07, 17:30

Prediction: Kalmar FF vs Mjällby AIF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Kalmar FF1.54

Mjällby AIF1.42

1X2

39% 27% 34%

Kalmar FF Draw Mjällby AIF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Kalmar FF 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Mjällby AIF 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDDDLDLD

Head-to-head

Kalmar FF 0–2–4 Mjällby AIF (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kalmar FF 1516 · Mjällby AIF 1510

	Kalmar FF	Draw	Mjällby AIF
Our model	39%	27%	34%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Mjällby AIF: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kalmar FF	Mjällby AIF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.3	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.30

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:10 +4’	2.38	3.30	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kalmar FF 0–2–4 Mjällby AIF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Sweden Cup	Mjällby AIF	2-0 HT 1-0	Kalmar FF
20/10/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	0-3 HT 0-2	Mjällby AIF
29/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	3-2 HT 2-2	Kalmar FF
03/09/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	0-2 HT 0-2	Mjällby AIF
03/07/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	1-1 HT 1-1	Kalmar FF
12/03/23 Sweden Cup	Kalmar FF	0-0 HT 0-0	Mjällby AIF

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	12	10	2	0	33	15	32
2	Hammarby	13	7	2	4	28	14	23
3	AIK	13	6	3	4	18	18	21
4	BK Hacken	12	5	5	2	25	22	20
5	Djurgarden	11	6	1	4	26	15	19
6	Malmo FF	12	6	1	5	25	20	19
7	GAIS	14	5	4	5	18	14	19
8	Vasteras SK	13	5	4	4	22	23	19
9	Elfsborg	13	4	6	3	17	14	18
10	Mjällby AIF	13	4	5	4	19	17	17
11	Brommapojkarna	13	4	4	5	18	21	16
12	Kalmar FF	12	4	1	7	14	17	13
13	IFK Goteborg	13	3	4	6	16	29	13
14	Degerfors	12	2	4	6	12	19	10
15	Orgryte IS	12	2	3	7	14	31	9
16	Halmstad	12	1	3	8	10	26	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kalmar FF	Mjällby AIF
Hammarby	0-2 L	2-1 W
AIK	2-0 W	1-2 L
Degerfors	2-1 W	4-1 W
Halmstad	2-0 W	3-3 D
Sirius	2-3 L	4-4 D
Elfsborg	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Kalmar FF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
05/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
27/06	Brommapojkarna Club Friendly List	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
22/06	AIK Club Friendly List	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
30/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
23/05	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
17/05	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
10/05	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	12	3	W
02/05	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-3	6	4	L
27/04	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	1	7	W

Mjällby AIF

WWLDDDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
11/07	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
03/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	4-4	3	1	D
27/06	FC Copenhagen Europe Friendlies	2-3	3-5	4	2	L
24/06	Halmstad Club Friendly List	1-0	3-3	6	1	D
25/05	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	3	9	D
21/05	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
17/05	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
14/05	Hammarby Sweden Cup	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
09/05	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	4-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kalmar FF vs Mjällby AIF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kalmar FF win (39%). Probabilities: Kalmar FF 39%, draw 27%, Mjällby AIF 34%.

How many goals are expected in Kalmar FF vs Mjällby AIF?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Kalmar FF 1.54 · Mjällby AIF 1.42), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Mjällby AIF?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.