Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 02/08, 16:30

Prediction: AIK vs Orgryte IS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

AIK2.44

Orgryte IS1.02

1X2

68% 19% 13%

AIK Draw Orgryte IS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

AIK 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWWWWW

Orgryte IS 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDLWDL

Head-to-head

AIK 3–0 Orgryte IS (3 last)

AIK2-0Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS0-1AIK
AIK1-0Orgryte IS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AIK 1544 · Orgryte IS 1439

	AIK	Draw	Orgryte IS
Our model	68%	19%	13%
Market	67%	19%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AIK (rating 1544 vs 1439).
H2H favours AIK: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AIK	Orgryte IS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	0.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +1’	1.36	4.75	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AIK 3–0–0 Orgryte IS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/02/22 Sweden Cup	AIK	2-0 HT 1-0	Orgryte IS
01/03/20 Sweden Cup	Orgryte IS	0-1 HT 0-1	AIK
02/03/19 Sweden Cup	AIK	1-0 HT 0-0	Orgryte IS

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	14	12	2	0	40	17	38
2	Hammarby	15	8	3	4	33	15	27
3	Djurgarden	13	7	2	4	27	15	23
4	BK Hacken	13	6	5	2	27	22	23
5	Vasteras SK	14	6	4	4	24	23	22
6	Elfsborg	15	5	6	4	20	18	21
7	AIK	13	6	3	4	18	18	21
8	Malmo FF	14	6	2	6	28	24	20
9	GAIS	15	5	5	5	19	15	20
10	Mjällby AIF	14	4	5	5	20	19	17
11	Kalmar FF	14	5	2	7	18	20	17
12	Brommapojkarna	14	4	5	5	19	22	17
13	IFK Goteborg	14	3	4	7	17	33	13
14	Degerfors	14	2	4	8	12	24	10
15	Orgryte IS	14	2	4	8	14	33	10
16	Halmstad	14	1	4	9	11	29	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AIK	Orgryte IS
GAIS	2-0 W	0-4 L
IFK Goteborg	2-1 W	2-3 L
Vasteras SK	3-2 W	0-2 L
Kalmar FF	0-2 L	0-3 L
Sirius	0-3 L	0-2 L
Djurgarden	2-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: AIK (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AIK

LDWLLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
11/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
05/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
28/06	IFK Vasteras FK Club Friendly List	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
28/06	Vasteras SK Club Friendly List	2-1	3-2	4	1	W
22/06	Kalmar FF Club Friendly List	0-2	0-2	2	2	L
30/05	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-3	9	7	L
24/05	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
17/05	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
10/05	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	1-3	2-4	7	4	L

Orgryte IS

DLLLLDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
20/07	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
11/07	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	4-3	5	4	W
05/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
29/05	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
23/05	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
19/05	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	2-3	6	5	L
11/05	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
03/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-4	2	1	L
27/04	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AIK vs Orgryte IS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AIK win (68%). Probabilities: AIK 68%, draw 19%, Orgryte IS 13%.

How many goals are expected in AIK vs Orgryte IS?

The model expects 3.46 goals (AIK 2.44 · Orgryte IS 1.02), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AIK vs Orgryte IS?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.