Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 03/08, 19:00

Prediction: Djurgarden vs Vasteras SK

Team pages: Djurgarden · Vasteras SK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Djurgarden2.18

Vasteras SK1.01

1X2

63% 21% 16%

Djurgarden Draw Vasteras SK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Djurgarden 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLLDWWDW

Vasteras SK 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLWWDW

Head-to-head

Djurgarden 3–0 Vasteras SK (3 last)

Vasteras SK0-1Djurgarden
Djurgarden2-1Vasteras SK
Vasteras SK0-2Djurgarden

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Djurgarden 1555 · Vasteras SK 1493

	Djurgarden	Draw	Vasteras SK
Our model	63%	21%	16%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Djurgarden (rating 1555 vs 1493).
H2H favours Djurgarden: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Djurgarden	Vasteras SK
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.5	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7.1	1.3 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.50

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Pinn 1.47
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.83 ★
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +10’	1.45	4.50	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:23	1.47	4.83	5.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Djurgarden 3–0–0 Vasteras SK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Club Friendly List	Vasteras SK	0-1 HT 0-1	Djurgarden
28/10/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Djurgarden	2-1 HT 1-1	Vasteras SK
05/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Vasteras SK	0-2 HT 0-1	Djurgarden

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	14	12	2	0	40	17	38
2	Hammarby	15	8	3	4	33	15	27
3	BK Hacken	14	6	6	2	27	22	24
4	Djurgarden	13	7	2	4	27	15	23
5	Vasteras SK	14	6	4	4	24	23	22
6	AIK	14	6	4	4	18	18	22
7	Elfsborg	15	5	6	4	20	18	21
8	Malmo FF	14	6	2	6	28	24	20
9	GAIS	15	5	5	5	19	15	20
10	Mjällby AIF	14	4	5	5	20	19	17
11	Kalmar FF	14	5	2	7	18	20	17
12	Brommapojkarna	14	4	5	5	19	22	17
13	IFK Goteborg	14	3	4	7	17	33	13
14	Degerfors	14	2	4	8	12	24	10
15	Orgryte IS	14	2	4	8	14	33	10
16	Halmstad	14	1	4	9	11	29	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Djurgarden	Vasteras SK
Degerfors	1-0 W	2-0 W
Orgryte IS	0-0 D	2-0 W
Halmstad	3-0 W	3-1 W
AIK	4-2 W	2-3 L
IFK Goteborg	6-0 W	4-5 L
Hammarby	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Djurgarden (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Djurgarden

DWWLLDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
20/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	13	4	D
13/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	10	1	W
06/07	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	4-2	8	4	W
26/06	Sirius Club Friendly List	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
22/05	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
18/05	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	2-3	7	5	L
10/05	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	3-1	4-2	9	4	W
04/05	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	6-0	7	3	W
26/04	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	1	2	D

Vasteras SK

LLDWLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
17/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	1	9	W
04/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-1	8	4	W
28/06	AIK Club Friendly List	1-2	2-3	1	1	L
31/05	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	2-4	4-5	7	2	L
24/05	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
17/05	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	6	8	D
09/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
03/05	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-3	0	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Djurgarden vs Vasteras SK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Djurgarden win (63%). Probabilities: Djurgarden 63%, draw 21%, Vasteras SK 16%.

How many goals are expected in Djurgarden vs Vasteras SK?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Djurgarden 2.18 · Vasteras SK 1.01), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Djurgarden vs Vasteras SK?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.