Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 03/08, 19:00

Prediction: Halmstad vs Sirius

Team pages: Halmstad · Sirius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Halmstad1.12

Sirius2.3

1X2

16% 21% 63%

Halmstad Draw Sirius

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Halmstad 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLDDLLLD

Sirius 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDDWWW

Head-to-head

Halmstad 3–1–2 Sirius (6 last)

Halmstad0-1Sirius
Sirius1-1Halmstad
Halmstad3-1Sirius
Sirius3-0Halmstad
Halmstad2-1Sirius
Sirius1-2Halmstad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Halmstad 1420 · Sirius 1610

	Halmstad	Draw	Sirius
Our model	16%	21%	63%
Market	16%	21%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sirius (rating 1420 vs 1610).
H2H favours Halmstad: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Halmstad	Sirius
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.1	2.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	3.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.75

X4.33

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.26
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.78 ★
2	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +9’	5.75	4.33	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:23	6.26	4.78	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Halmstad 3–1–2 Sirius

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Halmstad	0-1 HT 0-0	Sirius
27/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	1-1 HT 1-1	Halmstad
19/10/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Halmstad	3-1 HT 2-0	Sirius
01/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	3-0 HT 1-0	Halmstad
02/09/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Halmstad	2-1 HT 2-0	Sirius
21/05/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	1-2 HT 1-1	Halmstad

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	14	12	2	0	40	17	38
2	Hammarby	15	8	3	4	33	15	27
3	BK Hacken	14	6	6	2	27	22	24
4	Djurgarden	13	7	2	4	27	15	23
5	Vasteras SK	14	6	4	4	24	23	22
6	AIK	14	6	4	4	18	18	22
7	Elfsborg	15	5	6	4	20	18	21
8	Malmo FF	14	6	2	6	28	24	20
9	GAIS	15	5	5	5	19	15	20
10	Mjällby AIF	14	4	5	5	20	19	17
11	Kalmar FF	14	5	2	7	18	20	17
12	Brommapojkarna	14	4	5	5	19	22	17
13	IFK Goteborg	14	3	4	7	17	33	13
14	Degerfors	14	2	4	8	12	24	10
15	Orgryte IS	14	2	4	8	14	33	10
16	Halmstad	14	1	4	9	11	29	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Halmstad	Sirius
GAIS	1-1 D	2-1 W
Djurgarden	0-3 L	1-1 D
Mjällby AIF	3-3 D	4-4 D
Orgryte IS	2-0 W	2-0 W
Elfsborg	1-1 D	3-1 W
Kalmar FF	0-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sirius (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Halmstad

LDWLDDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
19/07	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
13/07	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-3	7	1	L
04/07	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	1-3	3	4	L
24/06	Mjällby AIF Club Friendly List	0-1	3-3	8	1	D
17/06	GAIS Club Friendly List	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
30/05	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-2	2-5	5	1	L
23/05	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
16/05	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
10/05	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	3	3	L

Sirius

WWWWWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	4-1	4	5	W
19/07	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
12/07	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-1	7	1	W
03/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	4-4	9	1	D
26/06	Djurgarden Club Friendly List	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
30/05	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
24/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
18/05	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
11/05	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
02/05	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	3-2	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Halmstad vs Sirius?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sirius win (63%). Probabilities: Halmstad 16%, draw 21%, Sirius 63%.

How many goals are expected in Halmstad vs Sirius?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Halmstad 1.12 · Sirius 2.3), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Sirius?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.