Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 16/09, 19:00

Prediction: AIK vs Mjällby AIF

Team pages: AIK · Mjällby AIF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

AIK1.72

Mjällby AIF1.44

1X2

43% 26% 31%

AIK Draw Mjällby AIF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AIK 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWWWDL

Mjällby AIF 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLDLLWLLLD

Head-to-head

AIK 4–1–1 Mjällby AIF (6 last)

Mjällby AIF1-2AIK
Mjällby AIF2-0AIK
AIK2-1Mjällby AIF
AIK1-0Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF1-1AIK
Mjällby AIF1-3AIK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AIK 1554 · Mjällby AIF 1401

	AIK	Draw	Mjällby AIF
Our model	43%	25%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AIK (rating 1554 vs 1401).
H2H favours AIK: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AIK	Mjällby AIF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	1.5 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.18
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.55
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.13 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:52 +8’	2.15	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +278’	2.18	3.55	3.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AIK 4–1–1 Mjällby AIF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	1-2 HT 0-0	AIK
20/07/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	2-0 HT 0-0	AIK
11/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	AIK	2-1 HT 1-1	Mjällby AIF
11/08/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	AIK	1-0 HT 0-0	Mjällby AIF
13/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	1-1 HT 0-0	AIK
09/03/24 Sweden Cup	Mjällby AIF	1-3 HT 1-2	AIK

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	20	14	3	3	48	27	45
2	Djurgarden	20	12	2	6	44	19	38
3	Hammarby	20	11	4	5	45	19	37
4	BK Hacken	21	8	9	4	34	30	33
5	AIK	20	9	5	6	29	31	32
6	Vasteras SK	21	9	5	7	32	35	32
7	Elfsborg	20	8	7	5	28	21	31
8	Malmo FF	20	9	3	8	33	30	30
9	IFK Goteborg	21	8	5	8	30	41	29
10	GAIS	20	7	6	7	25	18	27
11	Brommapojkarna	20	7	6	7	29	32	27
12	Mjällby AIF	20	5	6	9	26	34	21
13	Kalmar FF	20	5	4	11	21	30	19
14	Degerfors	20	5	4	11	19	31	19
15	Orgryte IS	20	3	6	11	23	43	15
16	Halmstad	21	2	5	14	14	39	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AIK	Mjällby AIF
Vasteras SK	1-4 L	0-0 D
Djurgarden	3-1 W	0-2 L
BK Hacken	0-0 D	1-1 D
IFK Goteborg	2-1 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AIK (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AIK

WWWDLWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-4	5	1	L
07/09	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
30/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	3-2	1	5	W
16/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	3-1	1	6	W
08/08	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	4-3	4	3	W
02/08	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
27/07	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
18/07	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
11/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
05/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	7	2	W

Mjällby AIF

DLDLLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	8	1	D
07/09	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-4	4	5	L
03/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	0	4	L
31/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-4	1	1	L
15/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	4-3	7	5	W
08/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
25/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
17/07	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
11/07	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
03/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	4-4	3	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AIK vs Mjällby AIF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AIK win (43%). Probabilities: AIK 43%, draw 26%, Mjällby AIF 31%.

How many goals are expected in AIK vs Mjällby AIF?

The model expects 3.15 goals (AIK 1.72 · Mjällby AIF 1.44), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AIK vs Mjällby AIF?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.