Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 24/07, 19:00

Prediction: Vasteras SK vs Orgryte IS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

Vasteras SK2.54

Orgryte IS1.08

1X2

68% 20% 13%

Vasteras SK Draw Orgryte IS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vasteras SK 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLLWWD

Orgryte IS 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLLDLW

Head-to-head

Vasteras SK 1–4–1 Orgryte IS (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasteras SK 1513 · Orgryte IS 1414

	Vasteras SK	Draw	Orgryte IS
Our model	68%	18%	13%
Market	67%	21%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vasteras SK (rating 1513 vs 1414).
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasteras SK	Orgryte IS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1.1 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.3 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	0/10/90%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	2.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.50

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.38▼	Bet365 1.38
X	4.33 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
2	5.75 → 7.50▲	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:08 +3’	1.48	4.33	5.75
16:07 +3’	1.38▼	4.50▲	7.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasteras SK 1–4–1 Orgryte IS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/10/25 Sweden Superettan	Orgryte IS	0-2 HT 0-1	Vasteras SK
08/04/25 Sweden Superettan	Vasteras SK	1-1 HT 1-1	Orgryte IS
04/11/23 Sweden Superettan	Orgryte IS	1-0 HT 0-0	Vasteras SK
10/04/23 Sweden Superettan	Vasteras SK	0-0 HT 0-0	Orgryte IS
27/08/22 Sweden Superettan	Vasteras SK	1-1 HT 1-0	Orgryte IS
26/07/22 Sweden Superettan	Orgryte IS	1-1 HT 0-0	Vasteras SK

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	12	10	2	0	33	15	32
2	Hammarby	13	7	2	4	28	14	23
3	AIK	13	6	3	4	18	18	21
4	BK Hacken	12	5	5	2	25	22	20
5	Djurgarden	11	6	1	4	26	15	19
6	Malmo FF	12	6	1	5	25	20	19
7	GAIS	14	5	4	5	18	14	19
8	Vasteras SK	13	5	4	4	22	23	19
9	Elfsborg	13	4	6	3	17	14	18
10	Mjällby AIF	13	4	5	4	19	17	17
11	Brommapojkarna	13	4	4	5	18	21	16
12	Kalmar FF	12	4	1	7	14	17	13
13	IFK Goteborg	13	3	4	6	16	29	13
14	Degerfors	12	2	4	6	12	19	10
15	Orgryte IS	12	2	3	7	14	31	9
16	Halmstad	12	1	3	8	10	26	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasteras SK	Orgryte IS
Degerfors	2-0 W	1-1 D
Halmstad	3-1 W	0-2 L
IFK Goteborg	4-5 L	2-3 L
GAIS	0-1 L	0-4 L
Hammarby	0-3 L	1-8 L
Brommapojkarna	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Vasteras SK (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vasteras SK

WLLDWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	1	9	W
04/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-1	8	4	W
28/06	AIK Club Friendly List	1-2	2-3	1	1	L
31/05	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	2-4	4-5	7	2	L
24/05	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
17/05	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	6	8	D
09/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
03/05	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-3	0	3	L
26/04	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	6	1	W

Orgryte IS

LLDLLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	4-3	5	4	W
05/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
29/05	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
23/05	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
19/05	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	2-3	6	5	L
11/05	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
03/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-4	2	1	L
27/04	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
22/04	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
18/04	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-4	1-8	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasteras SK vs Orgryte IS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vasteras SK win (68%). Probabilities: Vasteras SK 68%, draw 20%, Orgryte IS 13%.

How many goals are expected in Vasteras SK vs Orgryte IS?

The model expects 3.62 goals (Vasteras SK 2.54 · Orgryte IS 1.08), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasteras SK vs Orgryte IS?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.