Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 26/07, 16:30

Prediction: Malmo FF vs Elfsborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Malmo FF1.88

Elfsborg1.19

1X2

52% 25% 23%

Malmo FF Draw Elfsborg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Malmo FF 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWDWW

Elfsborg 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DWDDDDDLLL

Head-to-head

Malmo FF 3–2–1 Elfsborg (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malmo FF 1507 · Elfsborg 1470

	Malmo FF	Draw	Elfsborg
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Malmo FF: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malmo FF	Elfsborg
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.2	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	1.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.70

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.88 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.76
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +6’	1.75	3.70	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:31 +1’	1.88	3.76	3.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Malmo FF 3–2–1 Elfsborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/09/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	2-2 HT 0-2	Malmo FF
07/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	2-1 HT 0-0	Elfsborg
10/03/25 Sweden Cup	Malmo FF	0-0 HT 0-0	Elfsborg
28/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	2-1 HT 1-1	Elfsborg
05/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	3-1 HT 1-0	Malmo FF
12/11/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	1-0 HT 0-0	Elfsborg

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	13	11	2	0	36	16	35
2	Hammarby	14	8	2	4	32	14	26
3	BK Hacken	13	6	5	2	27	22	23
4	AIK	13	6	3	4	18	18	21
5	Djurgarden	11	6	1	4	26	15	19
6	Malmo FF	12	6	1	5	25	20	19
7	GAIS	14	5	4	5	18	14	19
8	Vasteras SK	13	5	4	4	22	23	19
9	Elfsborg	14	4	6	4	18	17	18
10	Mjällby AIF	13	4	5	4	19	17	17
11	Brommapojkarna	13	4	4	5	18	21	16
12	Kalmar FF	12	4	1	7	14	17	13
13	IFK Goteborg	13	3	4	6	16	29	13
14	Degerfors	13	2	4	7	12	23	10
15	Orgryte IS	12	2	3	7	14	31	9
16	Halmstad	13	1	3	9	10	28	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malmo FF	Elfsborg
Halmstad	5-2 W	1-1 D
Hammarby	1-4 L	1-2 L
BK Hacken	2-3 L	1-1 D
Mjällby AIF	2-3 L	1-1 D
AIK	1-0 W	1-1 D
Sirius	2-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 4 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Malmo FF

LWLLLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	4-0	7	3	W
04/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
26/06	Midtjylland Club Friendly List	2-0	2-2	4	0	D
30/05	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-2	5-2	4	1	W
24/05	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	2-3	2	4	L
17/05	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-3	1-4	3	2	L
10/05	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-3	2-3	5	4	L
03/05	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	2-3	5	1	L
27/04	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
23/04	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	2-3	4	4	L

Elfsborg

DWDDDDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
12/07	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
05/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
28/06	Fredrikstad Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
29/05	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
25/05	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
21/05	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
16/05	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-1	8	1	D
08/05	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
03/05	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	4	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malmo FF vs Elfsborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Malmo FF win (52%). Probabilities: Malmo FF 52%, draw 25%, Elfsborg 23%.

How many goals are expected in Malmo FF vs Elfsborg?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Malmo FF 1.88 · Elfsborg 1.19), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Elfsborg?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.