Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 31/07, 20:00

Prediction: Arsenal de Sarandi vs CA Brown de Adrogue

Team pages: Arsenal de Sarandi · CA Brown de Adrogue

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Arsenal de Sarandi1.47

CA Brown de Adrogue0.73

1X2

54% 28% 18%

Arsenal de Sarandi Draw CA Brown de Adrogue

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Arsenal de Sarandi 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWWLWD

CA Brown de Adrogue 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDDLLW

Head-to-head

Arsenal de Sarandi 2–0 CA Brown de Adrogue (2 last)

CA Brown de Adrogue0-4Arsenal de Sarandi
Arsenal de Sarandi2-1CA Brown de Adrogue

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arsenal de Sarandi 1536 · CA Brown de Adrogue 1472

	Arsenal de Sarandi	Draw	CA Brown de Adrogue
Our model	54%	29%	17%
Market	54%	28%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arsenal de Sarandi (rating 1536 vs 1472).
H2H favours Arsenal de Sarandi: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arsenal de Sarandi	CA Brown de Adrogue
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.67
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.21
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.13 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:00 +13’	1.65	3.20	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:48	1.67	3.21	5.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arsenal de Sarandi 2–0–0 CA Brown de Adrogue

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	0-4 HT 0-1	Arsenal de Sarandi
25/11/18 Argentina Nacional B	Arsenal de Sarandi	2-1 HT 2-1	CA Brown de Adrogue

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Talleres Remedios	27	15	7	5	31	13	52
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	27	14	9	4	37	19	51
3	Excursionistas	27	14	8	5	38	18	50
4	Atletico Camioneros	27	14	8	5	33	17	50
5	Villa Dalmine	27	13	10	4	30	14	49
6	Sportivo Italiano	27	12	9	6	27	21	45
7	Real Pilar	27	11	7	9	31	30	40
8	Club Comunicaciones	27	10	8	9	31	28	38
9	Deportivo Armenio	27	10	8	9	30	31	38
10	Deportivo Laferrere	27	10	8	9	29	32	38
11	Deportivo Merlo	27	9	9	9	32	40	36
12	Argentino Merlo	27	9	8	10	26	25	35
12	San Martin De Burzaco	27	8	11	8	26	25	35
14	CS Dock Sud	27	7	11	9	27	25	32
15	Argentino Quilmes	27	7	11	9	25	28	32
16	Deportivo Liniers	27	6	10	11	18	27	28
17	CSD Flandria	27	7	6	14	21	33	27
18	CA Brown de Adrogue	27	6	9	12	17	29	27
19	Defensores Unidos	27	5	11	11	21	30	26
20	Villa San Carlos	27	5	10	12	26	34	25
21	UAI Urquiza	27	3	16	8	13	23	25
22	CA Ituzaingo	27	1	8	18	18	45	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arsenal de Sarandi	CA Brown de Adrogue
Deportivo Armenio	0-0 D	0-0 D
CSD Flandria	1-0 W	2-0 W
Argentino Quilmes	0-1 L	2-4 L
Defensores Unidos	3-1 W	1-1 D
Club Comunicaciones	2-1 W	1-2 L
CS Dock Sud	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Arsenal de Sarandi (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arsenal de Sarandi

LLWWDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
18/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
14/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	9	L
10/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-1	9	5	W
04/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
28/06	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	10	D
21/06	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-1	4-2	4	9	W
13/06	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-1	4	10	W
06/06	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	1-3	8	6	L
01/06	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	3	6	L

CA Brown de Adrogue

WLDLWDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
18/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
15/07	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
10/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
04/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
27/06	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
20/06	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-4	6	4	L
13/06	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
06/06	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
30/05	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	0	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arsenal de Sarandi vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arsenal de Sarandi win (54%). Probabilities: Arsenal de Sarandi 54%, draw 28%, CA Brown de Adrogue 18%.

How many goals are expected in Arsenal de Sarandi vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Arsenal de Sarandi 1.47 · CA Brown de Adrogue 0.73), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal de Sarandi vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.