Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 27/07, 19:00

Prediction: BK Hacken vs AIK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

BK Hacken2.07

AIK1.4

1X2

52% 23% 25%

BK Hacken Draw AIK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

BK Hacken 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWDWLLLW

AIK 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWWWWW

Head-to-head

BK Hacken 3–2–1 AIK (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BK Hacken 1491 · AIK 1538

	BK Hacken	Draw	AIK
Our model	52%	23%	25%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AIK (rating 1491 vs 1538).
H2H favours BK Hacken: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BK Hacken	AIK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.90

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.80▲	Pinn 1.86
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.11 ★
2	4.20 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +6’	1.70	4.00	4.20
09:14 +6’	1.80▲	3.90▼	3.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:15	1.86	4.11	3.58

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BK Hacken 3–2–1 AIK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/26 Sweden Cup	AIK	4-0 HT 0-0	BK Hacken
26/10/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	AIK	2-2 HT 2-1	BK Hacken
14/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	BK Hacken	3-3 HT 0-1	AIK
06/10/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	AIK	0-2 HT 0-0	BK Hacken
02/06/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	BK Hacken	4-1 HT 2-0	AIK
01/10/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	BK Hacken	2-0 HT 0-0	AIK

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	13	11	2	0	36	16	35
2	Hammarby	14	8	2	4	32	14	26
3	BK Hacken	13	6	5	2	27	22	23
4	AIK	13	6	3	4	18	18	21
5	Djurgarden	12	6	2	4	26	15	20
6	Malmo FF	13	6	2	5	27	22	20
7	GAIS	14	5	4	5	18	14	19
8	Vasteras SK	13	5	4	4	22	23	19
9	Elfsborg	14	4	6	4	18	17	18
10	Mjällby AIF	13	4	5	4	19	17	17
11	Brommapojkarna	13	4	4	5	18	21	16
12	Kalmar FF	13	4	2	7	16	19	14
13	IFK Goteborg	13	3	4	6	16	29	13
14	Degerfors	13	2	4	7	12	23	10
15	Orgryte IS	13	2	4	7	14	31	10
16	Halmstad	13	1	3	9	10	28	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BK Hacken	AIK
Djurgarden	2-4 L	2-4 L
Hammarby	1-4 L	2-1 W
Mjällby AIF	1-0 W	2-1 W
Sirius	2-2 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

BK Hacken

DDWWDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
11/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-4	8	4	L
06/07	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	2-4	7	4	L
24/06	Hammarby Club Friendly List	1-3	1-4	6	0	L
31/05	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	3-2	7	5	W
25/05	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
17/05	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
10/05	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	3-2	3-2	4	4	W
02/05	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
27/04	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-2	3	1	D

AIK

LDWLLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
11/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
05/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
28/06	IFK Vasteras FK Club Friendly List	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
28/06	Vasteras SK Club Friendly List	2-1	3-2	4	1	W
22/06	Kalmar FF Club Friendly List	0-2	0-2	2	2	L
30/05	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-3	9	7	L
24/05	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
17/05	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
10/05	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	1-3	2-4	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BK Hacken vs AIK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a BK Hacken win (52%). Probabilities: BK Hacken 52%, draw 23%, AIK 25%.

How many goals are expected in BK Hacken vs AIK?

The model expects 3.47 goals (BK Hacken 2.07 · AIK 1.4), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs AIK?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.