Football · Sweden Superettan · 10/09, 19:00

Prediction: Ostersunds FK vs IK Brage

Team pages: Ostersunds FK · IK Brage

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Ostersunds FK1.92

IK Brage1.19

1X2

53% 25% 22%

Ostersunds FK Draw IK Brage

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Ostersunds FK 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWWDDD

IK Brage 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLDLLL

Head-to-head

Ostersunds FK 4–1–1 IK Brage (6 last)

IK Brage2-4Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK1-0IK Brage
IK Brage0-2Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK1-1IK Brage
IK Brage2-1Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK2-0IK Brage

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ostersunds FK 1567 · IK Brage 1411

	Ostersunds FK	Draw	IK Brage
Our model	53%	24%	22%
Market	53%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ostersunds FK (rating 1567 vs 1411).
H2H favours Ostersunds FK: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ostersunds FK	IK Brage
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.7	1.6 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.4	2.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.60

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +10’	1.70	3.60	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ostersunds FK 4–1–1 IK Brage

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Sweden Superettan	IK Brage	2-4 HT 1-2	Ostersunds FK
18/10/25 Sweden Superettan	Ostersunds FK	1-0 HT 0-0	IK Brage
05/05/25 Sweden Superettan	IK Brage	0-2 HT 0-1	Ostersunds FK
09/11/24 Sweden Superettan	Ostersunds FK	1-1 HT 0-0	IK Brage
12/05/24 Sweden Superettan	IK Brage	2-1 HT 2-1	Ostersunds FK
27/09/23 Sweden Superettan	Ostersunds FK	2-0 HT 1-0	IK Brage

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	22	15	3	4	43	15	48
2	Varbergs BoIS FC	22	11	5	6	39	28	38
3	Falkenbergs FF	22	11	5	6	42	32	38
4	Ostersunds FK	21	9	8	4	30	23	35
5	Nordic United FC	22	9	8	5	34	31	35
6	Landskrona BoIS	22	9	7	6	30	23	34
7	Sandvikens IF	22	9	6	7	38	29	33
8	Osters IF	22	10	3	9	33	32	33
9	IK Oddevold	22	8	8	6	36	32	32
10	Helsingborg	22	7	5	10	34	43	26
11	Norrby IF	22	4	11	7	26	31	23
12	IFK Varnamo	22	6	5	11	26	39	23
13	Ljungskile	22	5	7	10	27	32	22
14	IK Brage	22	5	6	11	35	43	21
15	Orebro SK	21	4	8	9	21	33	20
16	GIF Sundsvall	22	5	1	16	16	44	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ostersunds FK	IK Brage
Landskrona BoIS	1-1 D	2-1 W
IFK Varnamo	1-1 D	0-0 D
GIF Sundsvall	1-0 W	0-1 L
Osters IF	1-0 W	2-3 L
IFK Norrkoping	0-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ostersunds FK (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ostersunds FK

DLWWDWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
24/08	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
16/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
07/08	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
01/08	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
26/07	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
18/07	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
27/06	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
21/06	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
14/06	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	8	2	D

IK Brage

WLLDWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
29/08	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-4	4	2	L
23/08	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
14/08	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	1-1	3-3	5	2	D
08/08	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-3	0-3	7	2	L
01/08	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
25/07	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
18/07	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-3	8	7	L
26/06	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-4	2	2	L
21/06	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	2-1	5-1	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ostersunds FK vs IK Brage?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ostersunds FK win (53%). Probabilities: Ostersunds FK 53%, draw 25%, IK Brage 22%.

How many goals are expected in Ostersunds FK vs IK Brage?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Ostersunds FK 1.92 · IK Brage 1.19), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs IK Brage?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.