Football · Sweden Superettan · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK Brage

Team pages: Varbergs BoIS FC · IK Brage

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Varbergs BoIS FC1.99

IK Brage1.31

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Varbergs BoIS FC Draw IK Brage

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Varbergs BoIS FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLWDLW

IK Brage 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWLDLLLD

Head-to-head

Varbergs BoIS FC 0–3–3 IK Brage (6 last)

IK Brage2-2Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC1-2IK Brage
IK Brage1-1Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC0-1IK Brage
IK Brage1-0Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC0-0IK Brage

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Varbergs BoIS FC 1524 · IK Brage 1428

	Varbergs BoIS FC	Draw	IK Brage
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varbergs BoIS FC (rating 1524 vs 1428).
H2H favours IK Brage: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Varbergs BoIS FC	IK Brage
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.5	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.70

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:18 +10’	1.73	3.70	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Varbergs BoIS FC 0–3–3 IK Brage

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Sweden Superettan	IK Brage	2-2 HT 0-2	Varbergs BoIS FC
01/11/25 Sweden Superettan	Varbergs BoIS FC	1-2 HT 0-1	IK Brage
13/04/25 Sweden Superettan	IK Brage	1-1 HT 0-1	Varbergs BoIS FC
22/09/24 Sweden Superettan	Varbergs BoIS FC	0-1 HT 0-0	IK Brage
01/04/24 Sweden Superettan	IK Brage	1-0 HT 1-0	Varbergs BoIS FC
19/08/19 Sweden Superettan	Varbergs BoIS FC	0-0 HT 0-0	IK Brage

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	24	16	4	4	45	15	52
2	Falkenbergs FF	24	13	5	6	46	33	44
3	Ostersunds FK	24	11	9	4	33	24	42
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	24	12	5	7	41	31	41
5	IK Oddevold	24	9	9	6	37	32	36
6	Nordic United FC	24	9	9	6	37	36	36
7	Landskrona BoIS	23	9	7	7	31	25	34
8	Sandvikens IF	23	9	6	8	38	30	33
9	Osters IF	23	10	3	10	34	34	33
10	Helsingborg	24	8	5	11	36	45	29
11	IFK Varnamo	23	7	5	11	30	41	26
12	Ljungskile	24	6	7	11	29	35	25
13	Orebro SK	24	5	9	10	25	35	24
14	Norrby IF	24	4	11	9	28	35	23
15	IK Brage	23	5	7	11	36	44	22
16	GIF Sundsvall	23	5	1	17	16	47	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Varbergs BoIS FC	IK Brage
IFK Norrkoping	0-2 L	0-3 L
IFK Varnamo	1-1 D	0-0 D
Orebro SK	1-2 L	3-3 D
Nordic United FC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Falkenbergs FF	2-1 W	1-4 L
Osters IF	0-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Varbergs BoIS FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Varbergs BoIS FC

WLWLDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
10/09	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
05/09	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	8	0	D
30/08	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	3-0	3-1	5	5	W
25/08	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
15/08	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
09/08	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	12	3	L
01/08	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
27/07	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-3	2	4	L
18/07	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	1-1	4-2	3	2	W

IK Brage

LLDWLDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
05/09	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
29/08	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-4	4	2	L
23/08	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
14/08	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	1-1	3-3	5	2	D
08/08	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-3	0-3	7	2	L
01/08	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
25/07	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
18/07	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-3	8	7	L
26/06	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-4	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK Brage?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Varbergs BoIS FC win (52%). Probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 52%, draw 24%, IK Brage 24%.

How many goals are expected in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK Brage?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Varbergs BoIS FC 1.99 · IK Brage 1.31), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK Brage?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.