Football · Sweden Superettan · 31/08, 19:00

Prediction: GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF

Team pages: GIF Sundsvall · Norrby IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

GIF Sundsvall1.16

Norrby IF1.34

1X2

31% 28% 40%

GIF Sundsvall Draw Norrby IF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

GIF Sundsvall 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLDL

Norrby IF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWWDDWLD

Head-to-head

GIF Sundsvall 3–2–1 Norrby IF (6 last)

Norrby IF3-1GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall1-1Norrby IF
Norrby IF1-4GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall2-0Norrby IF
Norrby IF0-1GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall0-0Norrby IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GIF Sundsvall 1405 · Norrby IF 1508

	GIF Sundsvall	Draw	Norrby IF
Our model	31%	29%	40%
Market	32%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Norrby IF (rating 1405 vs 1508).
H2H favours GIF Sundsvall: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	GIF Sundsvall	Norrby IF
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.4	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.7	3.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.25

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 2.80▼	Pinn 3.15 ★
X	3.30 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.37
2	2.00 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.23

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:02 +12’	3.25	3.30	2.00
01:35 +4’	3.00▼	3.25▼	2.15▲
12:18 +2’	2.80▼	3.25	2.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:38	3.13	3.34	2.20
05:35	3.15▲	3.37▲	2.23▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · GIF Sundsvall 3–2–1 Norrby IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/26 Sweden Superettan	Norrby IF	3-1 HT 0-0	GIF Sundsvall
19/02/23 Sweden Cup	GIF Sundsvall	1-1 HT 1-0	Norrby IF
07/11/21 Sweden Superettan	Norrby IF	1-4 HT 1-1	GIF Sundsvall
24/04/21 Sweden Superettan	GIF Sundsvall	2-0 HT 0-0	Norrby IF
22/09/20 Sweden Superettan	Norrby IF	0-1 HT 0-1	GIF Sundsvall
18/07/20 Sweden Superettan	GIF Sundsvall	0-0 HT 0-0	Norrby IF

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	20	14	2	4	38	12	44
2	Falkenbergs FF	20	10	5	5	37	29	35
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	20	10	4	6	35	26	34
4	Ostersunds FK	20	9	7	4	29	22	34
5	Nordic United FC	20	8	8	4	31	27	32
6	Osters IF	20	10	2	8	31	29	32
7	Landskrona BoIS	20	8	6	6	26	21	30
8	Sandvikens IF	20	8	5	7	35	28	29
9	IK Oddevold	20	7	8	5	33	28	29
10	Helsingborg	20	7	4	9	33	40	25
11	Norrby IF	20	4	11	5	25	27	23
12	IK Brage	20	5	6	9	34	38	21
13	Ljungskile	20	5	6	9	25	29	21
14	Orebro SK	20	4	7	9	20	32	19
15	IFK Varnamo	20	5	4	11	24	38	19
16	GIF Sundsvall	20	3	1	16	14	44	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GIF Sundsvall	Norrby IF
Ostersunds FK	0-1 L	2-2 D
Sandvikens IF	0-5 L	1-1 D
Falkenbergs FF	1-2 L	0-2 L
Orebro SK	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Norrby IF (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

GIF Sundsvall

WLLLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
15/08	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
07/08	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
01/08	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	0-3	0-5	1	2	L
26/07	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
20/07	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-3	5	1	L
27/06	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
21/06	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-5	4	0	L
15/06	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-4	0-4	7	4	L
10/06	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	5	3	W

Norrby IF

LLDWWDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
15/08	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
10/08	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	2-1	3-1	1	1	W
31/07	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
26/07	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
20/07	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	3-1	7	1	W
28/06	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
21/06	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
14/06	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
10/06	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Norrby IF win (40%). Probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 31%, draw 28%, Norrby IF 40%.

How many goals are expected in GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF?

The model expects 2.5 goals (GIF Sundsvall 1.16 · Norrby IF 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.