Football · Sweden Superettan · 13/09, 17:00

Prediction: Ljungskile vs Falkenbergs FF

Team pages: Ljungskile · Falkenbergs FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Ljungskile1.52

Falkenbergs FF1.45

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Ljungskile Draw Falkenbergs FF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ljungskile 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDLLDLDW

Falkenbergs FF 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDWLWLW

Head-to-head

Ljungskile 2–3–1 Falkenbergs FF (6 last)

Falkenbergs FF1-1Ljungskile
Falkenbergs FF2-3Ljungskile
Ljungskile1-1Falkenbergs FF
Ljungskile1-1Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF1-3Ljungskile
Ljungskile0-3Falkenbergs FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ljungskile 1519 · Falkenbergs FF 1520

	Ljungskile	Draw	Falkenbergs FF
Our model	38%	27%	35%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ljungskile: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ljungskile	Falkenbergs FF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 5.3	1.7 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.25

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.45
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.51 ★
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.71

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:18 +11’	2.35	3.25	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:51 +35’	2.45	3.50	2.73
10:44 +160’	2.45	3.51▲	2.71▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ljungskile 2–3–1 Falkenbergs FF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Sweden Superettan	Falkenbergs FF	1-1 HT 1-0	Ljungskile
21/09/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Falkenbergs FF	2-3 HT 2-0	Ljungskile
31/05/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ljungskile	1-1 HT 0-1	Falkenbergs FF
06/08/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ljungskile	1-1 HT 1-0	Falkenbergs FF
01/05/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Falkenbergs FF	1-3 HT 1-0	Ljungskile
25/09/22 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ljungskile	0-3 HT 0-2	Falkenbergs FF

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	23	16	3	4	45	15	51
2	Falkenbergs FF	23	12	5	6	44	33	41
3	Ostersunds FK	23	10	9	4	32	24	39
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	23	11	5	7	39	30	38
5	IK Oddevold	23	9	8	6	37	32	35
6	Nordic United FC	23	9	8	6	36	35	35
7	Landskrona BoIS	23	9	7	7	31	25	34
8	Sandvikens IF	23	9	6	8	38	30	33
9	Osters IF	23	10	3	10	34	34	33
10	Helsingborg	23	8	5	10	36	44	29
11	IFK Varnamo	23	7	5	11	30	41	26
12	Ljungskile	23	6	7	10	29	33	25
13	Norrby IF	23	4	11	8	27	33	23
14	Orebro SK	23	5	8	10	24	34	23
15	IK Brage	23	5	7	11	36	44	22
16	GIF Sundsvall	23	5	1	17	16	47	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ljungskile	Falkenbergs FF
Norrby IF	2-1 W	2-0 W
IFK Norrkoping	2-2 D	1-2 L
Osters IF	2-3 L	2-1 W
IK Oddevold	0-1 L	1-2 L
Nordic United FC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Falkenbergs FF (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ljungskile

WWWDLLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
04/09	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
29/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
24/08	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
15/08	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	2-2	2-3	5	4	L
08/08	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
02/08	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
26/07	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
19/07	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	1-0	3-2	1	3	W
27/06	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	1-2	3-2	8	4	W

Falkenbergs FF

WLWLDWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
05/09	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
29/08	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	2-0	4-1	4	2	W
24/08	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
15/08	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
08/08	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
01/08	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
26/07	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
21/07	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	2-3	2-3	2	3	L
26/06	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	1-2	4-2	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ljungskile vs Falkenbergs FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ljungskile win (38%). Probabilities: Ljungskile 38%, draw 27%, Falkenbergs FF 35%.

How many goals are expected in Ljungskile vs Falkenbergs FF?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Ljungskile 1.52 · Falkenbergs FF 1.45), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ljungskile vs Falkenbergs FF?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.