Football · Sweden Superettan · 14/09, 19:05

Prediction: Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg

Team pages: Ostersunds FK · Helsingborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Ostersunds FK1.6

Helsingborg1.04

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Ostersunds FK Draw Helsingborg

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ostersunds FK 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDDDWD

Helsingborg 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLLDLDLW

Head-to-head

Ostersunds FK 2–3–1 Helsingborg (6 last)

Helsingborg2-1Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK2-2Helsingborg
Helsingborg0-0Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK1-0Helsingborg
Helsingborg0-0Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK1-0Helsingborg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ostersunds FK 1561 · Helsingborg 1493

	Ostersunds FK	Draw	Helsingborg
Our model	49%	27%	23%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ostersunds FK (rating 1561 vs 1493).
H2H favours Ostersunds FK: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ostersunds FK	Helsingborg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.5	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.7	2.8 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 07:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.91▲	Bet365 1.91
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.51 ★
2	4.10 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:12 +20’	1.67	3.50	4.10
20:19 +13’	1.83▲	3.40▼	3.60▼
07:15 +22’	1.91▲	3.50▲	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:15 +94’	1.73	3.76	4.52
14:23 +9’	1.77▲	3.65▼	4.38▼
15:48 +284’	1.88▲	3.51▼	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ostersunds FK 2–3–1 Helsingborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Sweden Superettan	Helsingborg	2-1 HT 1-0	Ostersunds FK
02/08/25 Sweden Superettan	Ostersunds FK	2-2 HT 2-2	Helsingborg
01/06/25 Sweden Superettan	Helsingborg	0-0 HT 0-0	Ostersunds FK
13/09/24 Sweden Superettan	Ostersunds FK	1-0 HT 1-0	Helsingborg
28/04/24 Sweden Superettan	Helsingborg	0-0 HT 0-0	Ostersunds FK
07/10/23 Sweden Superettan	Ostersunds FK	1-0 HT 0-0	Helsingborg

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	23	16	3	4	45	15	51
2	Falkenbergs FF	23	12	5	6	44	33	41
3	Ostersunds FK	23	10	9	4	32	24	39
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	23	11	5	7	39	30	38
5	IK Oddevold	23	9	8	6	37	32	35
6	Nordic United FC	23	9	8	6	36	35	35
7	Landskrona BoIS	23	9	7	7	31	25	34
8	Sandvikens IF	23	9	6	8	38	30	33
9	Osters IF	23	10	3	10	34	34	33
10	Helsingborg	23	8	5	10	36	44	29
11	IFK Varnamo	23	7	5	11	30	41	26
12	Ljungskile	23	6	7	10	29	33	25
13	Norrby IF	23	4	11	8	27	33	23
14	Orebro SK	23	5	8	10	24	34	23
15	IK Brage	23	5	7	11	36	44	22
16	GIF Sundsvall	23	5	1	17	16	47	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ostersunds FK	Helsingborg
Orebro SK	1-0 W	1-1 D
Landskrona BoIS	1-1 D	2-1 W
IFK Varnamo	1-1 D	1-2 L
GIF Sundsvall	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ostersunds FK (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ostersunds FK

WWDWWDDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	14	1	D
07/09	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
29/08	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
24/08	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
16/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
07/08	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
01/08	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
26/07	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
18/07	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
27/06	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-0	3	3	W

Helsingborg

LWDLLDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-1	7	7	W
05/09	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
01/09	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
23/08	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	1-2	1-3	5	6	L
15/08	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
11/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	9	1	L
01/08	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
28/07	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	10	2	D
21/07	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	3-2	3-2	3	3	W
28/06	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	1-2	2-4	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ostersunds FK win (49%). Probabilities: Ostersunds FK 49%, draw 27%, Helsingborg 24%.

How many goals are expected in Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Ostersunds FK 1.6 · Helsingborg 1.04), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.