Football · Sweden Superettan · 14/09, 19:00

Prediction: Orebro SK vs Nordic United FC

Team pages: Orebro SK · Nordic United FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Orebro SK1.63

Nordic United FC1.35

1X2

43% 27% 30%

Orebro SK Draw Nordic United FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Orebro SK 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDWDLW

Nordic United FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDDDWLWL

Head-to-head

Orebro SK 0–1 Nordic United FC (1 last)

Nordic United FC2-0Orebro SK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orebro SK 1492 · Nordic United FC 1524

	Orebro SK	Draw	Nordic United FC
Our model	43%	26%	31%
Market	43%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.6 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orebro SK	Nordic United FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 5.3	2.6 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.1	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.25
X	3.30 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.61 ★
2	2.55 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:51 +37’	2.38	3.30	2.55
20:01 +28’	2.15▼	3.40▲	2.80▲
07:30 +7’	2.25▲	3.50▲	3.00▲
15:48 +4’	2.20▼	3.50	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:15 +94’	2.31	3.61	2.84
07:22 +23’	2.39▲	3.57▼	2.73▼
15:58 +8’	2.44▲	3.59▲	2.68▼
15:49 +280’	2.28▼	3.59	2.89▲
12:53 +179’	2.25▼	3.61▲	2.93▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orebro SK 0–0–1 Nordic United FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 Sweden Superettan	Nordic United FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Orebro SK

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	23	16	3	4	45	15	51
2	Falkenbergs FF	23	12	5	6	44	33	41
3	Ostersunds FK	23	10	9	4	32	24	39
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	23	11	5	7	39	30	38
5	IK Oddevold	23	9	8	6	37	32	35
6	Nordic United FC	23	9	8	6	36	35	35
7	Landskrona BoIS	23	9	7	7	31	25	34
8	Sandvikens IF	23	9	6	8	38	30	33
9	Osters IF	23	10	3	10	34	34	33
10	Helsingborg	23	8	5	10	36	44	29
11	IFK Varnamo	23	7	5	11	30	41	26
12	Ljungskile	23	6	7	10	29	33	25
13	Norrby IF	23	4	11	8	27	33	23
14	Orebro SK	23	5	8	10	24	34	23
15	IK Brage	23	5	7	11	36	44	22
16	GIF Sundsvall	23	5	1	17	16	47	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orebro SK	Nordic United FC
Helsingborg	1-1 D	1-1 D
Varbergs BoIS FC	2-1 W	0-0 D
IK Brage	3-3 D	2-1 W
IFK Varnamo	1-3 L	2-4 L
IK Oddevold	0-0 D	3-3 D
Ljungskile	2-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nordic United FC (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orebro SK

LLDLLDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
07/09	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
01/09	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
25/08	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	2-0	2-1	3	1	W
14/08	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	1-1	3-3	10	2	D
10/08	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	1-2	1-3	11	1	L
03/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-3	6	2	L
27/07	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
19/07	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-2	0-2	2	0	L
27/06	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-3	4	4	L

Nordic United FC

DWDDDDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-4	4	3	L
04/09	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
29/08	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	1-2	1-3	15	4	L
23/08	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	2-0	2-1	8	3	W
15/08	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	9	0	D
08/08	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
02/08	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
28/07	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
19/07	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	2-0	2-0	2	0	W
27/06	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	2-0	3-3	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orebro SK vs Nordic United FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orebro SK win (43%). Probabilities: Orebro SK 43%, draw 27%, Nordic United FC 30%.

How many goals are expected in Orebro SK vs Nordic United FC?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Orebro SK 1.63 · Nordic United FC 1.35), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Nordic United FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.