Football · Sweden Superettan · 14/09, 19:00
Prediction: Norrby IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC
Team pages: Norrby IF · Varbergs BoIS FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Norrby IF1.33
Varbergs BoIS FC1.48
1X2
Norrby IF
Draw
Varbergs BoIS FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Norrby IF
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Varbergs BoIS FC
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Norrby IF
1–2–3
Varbergs BoIS FC
(6 last)
- Varbergs BoIS FC4-2Norrby IF
- Varbergs BoIS FC2-0Norrby IF
- Varbergs BoIS FC1-1Norrby IF
- Norrby IF1-4Varbergs BoIS FC
- Norrby IF1-1Varbergs BoIS FC
- Varbergs BoIS FC0-3Norrby IF
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Norrby IF 1475 · Varbergs BoIS FC 1532
| Norrby IF | Draw | Varbergs BoIS FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 28% | 40% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varbergs BoIS FC (rating 1475 vs 1532).
- H2H favours Varbergs BoIS FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Norrby IF | Varbergs BoIS FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.6 | 2.7 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Norrby IF 1–2–3 Varbergs BoIS FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/26 Club Friendly List | Varbergs BoIS FC | 4-2 HT 0-2 | Norrby IF |
| 10/06/26 Sweden Superettan | Varbergs BoIS FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Norrby IF |
| 16/06/22 Club Friendly List | Varbergs BoIS FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Norrby IF |
| 15/02/20 Europe Friendlies | Norrby IF | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Varbergs BoIS FC |
| 15/09/19 Sweden Superettan | Norrby IF | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Varbergs BoIS FC |
| 06/07/19 Club Friendly List | Varbergs BoIS FC | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Norrby IF |
Standings · Sweden Superettan
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrkoping | 23 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 15 | 51 |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 44 | 33 | 41 |
| 3 | Ostersunds FK | 23 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 32 | 24 | 39 |
| 4 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 39 | 30 | 38 |
| 5 | IK Oddevold | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 37 | 32 | 35 |
| 6 | Nordic United FC | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 36 | 35 | 35 |
| 7 | Landskrona BoIS | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 31 | 25 | 34 |
| 8 | Sandvikens IF | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 30 | 33 |
| 9 | Osters IF | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 34 | 33 |
| 10 | Helsingborg | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 44 | 29 |
| 11 | IFK Varnamo | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 41 | 26 |
| 12 | Ljungskile | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 33 | 25 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 23 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 27 | 33 | 23 |
| 14 | Orebro SK | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 24 | 34 | 23 |
| 15 | IK Brage | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 44 | 22 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 23 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 16 | 47 | 16 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Norrby IF | Varbergs BoIS FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sandvikens IF | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Falkenbergs FF | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Orebro SK | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| IK Oddevold | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| IFK Norrkoping | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Norrby IF (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Norrby IF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Ljungskile Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 31/08 | GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 10/08 | Orebro SK Sweden Superettan |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 31/07 | IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 20/07 | GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Varbergs BoIS FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 30/08 | IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan |
3-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 25/08 | Orebro SK Sweden Superettan |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 09/08 | Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 27/07 | Osters IF Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan |
1-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Osters IF Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Norrby IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Varbergs BoIS FC win (40%). Probabilities: Norrby IF 33%, draw 28%, Varbergs BoIS FC 40%.
How many goals are expected in Norrby IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Norrby IF 1.33 · Varbergs BoIS FC 1.48), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.