Football · Sweden Superettan · 16/08, 13:00

Prediction: IFK Varnamo vs Ostersunds FK

Team pages: IFK Varnamo · Ostersunds FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

IFK Varnamo1.33

Ostersunds FK1.38

1X2

35% 28% 37%

IFK Varnamo Draw Ostersunds FK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Varnamo 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLDW

Ostersunds FK 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWWDWW

Head-to-head

IFK Varnamo 1–1–1 Ostersunds FK (3 last)

Ostersunds FK3-2IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo1-0Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK1-1IFK Varnamo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Varnamo 1410 · Ostersunds FK 1546

	IFK Varnamo	Draw	Ostersunds FK
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	35%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ostersunds FK (rating 1410 vs 1546).
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Varnamo	Ostersunds FK
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.1	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.1	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/33/67%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.30

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:21 +4’	2.55	3.30	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Varnamo 1–1–1 Ostersunds FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Sweden Superettan	Ostersunds FK	3-2 HT 3-0	IFK Varnamo
29/09/15 Sweden Superettan	IFK Varnamo	1-0 HT 1-0	Ostersunds FK
25/04/15 Sweden Superettan	Ostersunds FK	1-1 HT 0-0	IFK Varnamo

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	18	12	2	4	32	10	38
2	Varbergs BoIS FC	18	10	3	5	34	24	33
3	Falkenbergs FF	18	9	5	4	34	27	32
4	Ostersunds FK	18	9	5	4	28	21	32
5	Sandvikens IF	18	8	4	6	33	23	28
6	Landskrona BoIS	18	8	4	6	24	19	28
7	Nordic United FC	18	7	7	4	29	26	28
8	Osters IF	18	8	2	8	27	27	26
9	IK Oddevold	18	6	7	5	29	26	25
10	Helsingborg	17	7	3	7	30	34	24
11	IK Brage	18	5	5	8	30	33	20
12	Ljungskile	18	5	5	8	23	26	20
13	Norrby IF	17	3	10	4	21	23	19
14	Orebro SK	17	3	6	8	14	25	15
15	IFK Varnamo	17	4	2	11	20	35	14
16	GIF Sundsvall	18	3	0	15	13	42	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Varnamo	Ostersunds FK
Orebro SK	3-1 W	3-2 W
Ljungskile	2-3 L	1-1 D
Landskrona BoIS	0-1 L	2-0 W
Osters IF	0-3 L	1-0 W
Nordic United FC	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ostersunds FK (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

IFK Varnamo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-1	3-1	6	2	W
25/07	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
19/07	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-3	8	3	L
13/07	Naestved Club Friendly List	–	0-2	–	–	L
28/06	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
21/06	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	1-2	1-5	3	4	L
16/06	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
09/06	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-3	0-3	5	2	L
31/05	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
23/05	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-3	2	2	L

Ostersunds FK

LWDDLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
01/08	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
26/07	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
18/07	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
27/06	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
21/06	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
14/06	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
09/06	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
31/05	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	1-2	3-2	7	3	W
23/05	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Varnamo vs Ostersunds FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ostersunds FK win (37%). Probabilities: IFK Varnamo 35%, draw 28%, Ostersunds FK 37%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Varnamo vs Ostersunds FK?

The model expects 2.71 goals (IFK Varnamo 1.33 · Ostersunds FK 1.38), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Ostersunds FK?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.