Football · Sweden Superettan · 25/08, 19:00

Prediction: Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC

Team pages: Orebro SK · Varbergs BoIS FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Orebro SK1.4

Varbergs BoIS FC1.46

1X2

35% 27% 38%

Orebro SK Draw Varbergs BoIS FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Orebro SK 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LLDDLLDLLD

Varbergs BoIS FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWLWLD

Head-to-head

Orebro SK 1–3–2 Varbergs BoIS FC (6 last)

Varbergs BoIS FC0-0Orebro SK
Orebro SK1-1Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC2-1Orebro SK
Varbergs BoIS FC1-1Orebro SK
Orebro SK3-1Varbergs BoIS FC
Orebro SK0-3Varbergs BoIS FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orebro SK 1448 · Varbergs BoIS FC 1542

	Orebro SK	Draw	Varbergs BoIS FC
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	35%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varbergs BoIS FC (rating 1448 vs 1542).
H2H favours Varbergs BoIS FC: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orebro SK	Varbergs BoIS FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.3	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.25

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 21:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.77 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.30
2	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:10 +5’	2.55	3.25	2.38
11:51 +7’	2.60▲	3.25	2.30▼
21:57 +1’	2.55▼	3.25	2.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:12	2.69	3.34	2.56
16:01	2.73▲	3.34	2.52▼
21:48 +2’	2.84▲	3.30▼	2.45▼
13:13 +6’	2.73▼	3.30	2.54▲
21:51 +7’	2.77▲	3.30	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Orebro SK 1–3–2 Varbergs BoIS FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Sweden Superettan	Varbergs BoIS FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Orebro SK
24/09/25 Sweden Superettan	Orebro SK	1-1 HT 1-0	Varbergs BoIS FC
07/04/25 Sweden Superettan	Varbergs BoIS FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Orebro SK
05/10/24 Sweden Superettan	Varbergs BoIS FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Orebro SK
22/04/24 Sweden Superettan	Orebro SK	3-1 HT 1-0	Varbergs BoIS FC
13/09/21 Sweden Allsvenskan	Orebro SK	0-3 HT 0-0	Varbergs BoIS FC

Standings · Sweden Superettan

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	19	13	2	4	36	11	41
2	Falkenbergs FF	19	10	5	4	36	27	35
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	19	10	4	5	34	24	34
4	Ostersunds FK	19	9	6	4	29	22	33
5	Landskrona BoIS	19	8	5	6	25	20	29
6	Nordic United FC	19	7	8	4	29	26	29
7	Osters IF	19	9	2	8	30	29	29
8	Sandvikens IF	19	8	4	7	34	27	28
9	IK Oddevold	19	6	8	5	30	27	26
10	Helsingborg	19	7	4	8	32	37	25
11	Norrby IF	19	4	10	5	24	26	22
12	IK Brage	19	5	6	8	33	36	21
13	Ljungskile	19	5	5	9	25	29	20
14	IFK Varnamo	19	5	3	11	23	37	18
15	Orebro SK	19	3	7	9	18	31	16
16	GIF Sundsvall	19	3	1	15	14	43	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orebro SK	Varbergs BoIS FC
Norrby IF	1-3 L	2-0 W
IK Oddevold	0-0 D	4-2 W
Nordic United FC	0-2 L	0-0 D
Ljungskile	2-3 L	3-1 W
Sandvikens IF	1-1 D	0-1 L
Falkenbergs FF	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Varbergs BoIS FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orebro SK

LLDDLLDLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	1-1	3-3	10	2	D
10/08	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	1-2	1-3	11	1	L
03/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-3	6	2	L
27/07	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
19/07	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-2	0-2	2	0	L
27/06	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-3	4	4	L
22/06	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	1-1	1-1	9	5	D
14/06	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-1	11	2	D
10/06	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
31/05	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-3	0	3	L

Varbergs BoIS FC

WWLLWWLWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
09/08	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	12	3	L
01/08	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
27/07	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-3	2	4	L
18/07	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	1-1	4-2	3	2	W
27/06	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
22/06	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-3	7	5	L
15/06	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
10/06	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
30/05	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	2-0	3-1	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Varbergs BoIS FC win (38%). Probabilities: Orebro SK 35%, draw 27%, Varbergs BoIS FC 38%.

How many goals are expected in Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Orebro SK 1.4 · Varbergs BoIS FC 1.46), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.