Football · Sweden Superettan · 24/08, 19:00

Prediction: IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS

Team pages: IFK Varnamo · Landskrona BoIS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

IFK Varnamo1.45

Landskrona BoIS1.22

1X2

41% 28% 31%

IFK Varnamo Draw Landskrona BoIS

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Varnamo 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLDWWD

Landskrona BoIS 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLLLWD

Head-to-head

IFK Varnamo 2–3–1 Landskrona BoIS (6 last)

Landskrona BoIS1-0IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo4-2Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS1-1IFK Varnamo
Landskrona BoIS1-1IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo1-0Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS2-2IFK Varnamo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Varnamo 1476 · Landskrona BoIS 1529

	IFK Varnamo	Draw	Landskrona BoIS
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Landskrona BoIS (rating 1476 vs 1529).
H2H favours IFK Varnamo: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Varnamo	Landskrona BoIS
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.3	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.21
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.46
2	2.90 → 2.88▼	Pinn 3.08 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
08:53 +6’	2.10	3.30	2.90
11:48 +6’	2.15▲	3.30	2.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:40 +1’	2.13	3.51	3.24
10:12 +1’	2.21▲	3.48▼	3.09▼
04:28	2.21	3.46▼	3.08▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Varnamo 2–3–1 Landskrona BoIS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Sweden Superettan	Landskrona BoIS	1-0 HT 0-0	IFK Varnamo
13/02/26 Club Friendly List	IFK Varnamo	4-2 HT 1-1	Landskrona BoIS
15/03/25 Europe Friendlies	Landskrona BoIS	1-1 HT 0-1	IFK Varnamo
15/03/25 Club Friendly List	Landskrona BoIS	1-1 HT 0-1	IFK Varnamo
24/11/24 Sweden Allsvenskan Qualification	IFK Varnamo	1-0 HT 1-0	Landskrona BoIS
21/11/24 Sweden Allsvenskan Qualification	Landskrona BoIS	2-2 HT 0-1	IFK Varnamo

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	19	13	2	4	36	11	41
2	Falkenbergs FF	19	10	5	4	36	27	35
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	19	10	4	5	34	24	34
4	Ostersunds FK	19	9	6	4	29	22	33
5	Landskrona BoIS	19	8	5	6	25	20	29
6	Nordic United FC	19	7	8	4	29	26	29
7	Osters IF	19	9	2	8	30	29	29
8	Sandvikens IF	19	8	4	7	34	27	28
9	IK Oddevold	19	6	8	5	30	27	26
10	Helsingborg	19	7	4	8	32	37	25
11	Norrby IF	19	4	10	5	24	26	22
12	IK Brage	19	5	6	8	33	36	21
13	Ljungskile	19	5	5	9	25	29	20
14	IFK Varnamo	19	5	3	11	23	37	18
15	Orebro SK	19	3	7	9	18	31	16
16	GIF Sundsvall	19	3	1	15	14	43	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Varnamo	Landskrona BoIS
Ostersunds FK	1-1 D	0-2 L
Helsingborg	2-1 W	3-0 W
IK Brage	0-0 D	1-2 L
Osters IF	0-3 L	1-0 W
Nordic United FC	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Landskrona BoIS (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Varnamo

LLLLLLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
11/08	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	2-0	2-1	1	1	W
03/08	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-1	3-1	6	2	W
25/07	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
19/07	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-3	8	3	L
28/06	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
21/06	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	1-2	1-5	3	4	L
16/06	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
09/06	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-3	0-3	5	2	L
31/05	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-2	3	2	L

Landskrona BoIS

DWWWWLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
08/08	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
01/08	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
28/07	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
18/07	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	9	1	L
28/06	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
22/06	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	1-2	3-2	0	5	W
16/06	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
11/06	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	1-0	3-0	2	5	W
30/05	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-2	12	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IFK Varnamo win (41%). Probabilities: IFK Varnamo 41%, draw 28%, Landskrona BoIS 31%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?

The model expects 2.67 goals (IFK Varnamo 1.45 · Landskrona BoIS 1.22), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.