Football · Sweden Superettan · 24/08, 19:05

Prediction: IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF

Team pages: IFK Norrkoping · Falkenbergs FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

IFK Norrkoping1.87

Falkenbergs FF0.92

1X2

59% 24% 17%

IFK Norrkoping Draw Falkenbergs FF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Norrkoping 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWWWW

Falkenbergs FF 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLWLDW

Head-to-head

IFK Norrkoping 4–1–1 Falkenbergs FF (6 last)

Falkenbergs FF1-0IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping4-1Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF3-3IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping1-0Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF0-2IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping4-3Falkenbergs FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Norrkoping 1601 · Falkenbergs FF 1522

	IFK Norrkoping	Draw	Falkenbergs FF
Our model	59%	24%	17%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IFK Norrkoping (rating 1601 vs 1522).
H2H favours IFK Norrkoping: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Norrkoping	Falkenbergs FF
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.3	2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.90

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.55
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.35 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
08:57 +3’	1.50	3.90	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:42	1.58	4.26	5.01
21:45 +2’	1.55▼	4.35▲	5.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Norrkoping 4–1–1 Falkenbergs FF

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/05/26 Sweden Superettan	Falkenbergs FF	1-0 HT 0-0	IFK Norrkoping
23/11/20 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Norrkoping	4-1 HT 3-1	Falkenbergs FF
26/07/20 Sweden Allsvenskan	Falkenbergs FF	3-3 HT 2-0	IFK Norrkoping
07/03/20 Sweden Cup	IFK Norrkoping	1-0 HT 0-0	Falkenbergs FF
29/09/19 Sweden Allsvenskan	Falkenbergs FF	0-2 HT 0-1	IFK Norrkoping
19/04/19 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Norrkoping	4-3 HT 2-1	Falkenbergs FF

Standings · Sweden Superettan

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	19	13	2	4	36	11	41
2	Falkenbergs FF	19	10	5	4	36	27	35
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	19	10	4	5	34	24	34
4	Ostersunds FK	19	9	6	4	29	22	33
5	Landskrona BoIS	19	8	5	6	25	20	29
6	Nordic United FC	19	7	8	4	29	26	29
7	Osters IF	19	9	2	8	30	29	29
8	Sandvikens IF	19	8	4	7	34	27	28
9	IK Oddevold	19	6	8	5	30	27	26
10	Helsingborg	19	7	4	8	32	37	25
11	Norrby IF	19	4	10	5	24	26	22
12	IK Brage	19	5	6	8	33	36	21
13	Ljungskile	19	5	5	9	25	29	20
14	IFK Varnamo	19	5	3	11	23	37	18
15	Orebro SK	19	3	7	9	18	31	16
16	GIF Sundsvall	19	3	1	15	14	43	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Norrkoping	Falkenbergs FF
Sandvikens IF	4-1 W	2-4 L
IK Brage	3-0 W	4-2 W
Helsingborg	2-0 W	2-3 L
Norrby IF	0-1 L	2-0 W
Varbergs BoIS FC	2-0 W	1-2 L
IK Oddevold	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: IFK Norrkoping (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Norrkoping

WWWWLWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	1-1	4-1	6	2	W
08/08	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	3-0	3-0	6	2	W
01/08	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
28/07	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
19/07	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	2-0	3-0	7	3	W
28/06	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	10	3	L
21/06	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
15/06	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
09/06	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-1	1	2	W
31/05	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-0	4	7	W

Falkenbergs FF

WLDWWLWLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
08/08	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
01/08	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
26/07	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
21/07	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	2-3	2-3	2	3	L
26/06	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	1-2	4-2	3	2	W
21/06	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
14/06	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
09/06	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	1-4	2-4	7	2	L
30/05	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-1	3	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IFK Norrkoping win (59%). Probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 59%, draw 24%, Falkenbergs FF 17%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF?

The model expects 2.79 goals (IFK Norrkoping 1.87 · Falkenbergs FF 0.92), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.