Football · Sweden Superettan · 15/09, 19:00

Prediction: IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF

Team pages: IFK Varnamo · Osters IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

IFK Varnamo1.85

Osters IF1.29

1X2

49% 25% 25%

IFK Varnamo Draw Osters IF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Varnamo 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LLDWWDDWDW

Osters IF 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWWDLL

Head-to-head

IFK Varnamo 2–1–3 Osters IF (6 last)

Osters IF3-0IFK Varnamo
Osters IF4-3IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo1-1Osters IF
Osters IF0-1IFK Varnamo
Osters IF2-0IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo2-0Osters IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Varnamo 1540 · Osters IF 1522

	IFK Varnamo	Draw	Osters IF
Our model	50%	25%	26%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Osters IF: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Varnamo	Osters IF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.1	2.5 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.93
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.88 ★
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:29 +1’	1.91	3.60	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:16 +97’	1.98	3.87	3.30
23:34 +7’	1.97▼	3.83▼	3.36▲
07:49	1.95▼	3.83	3.42▲
22:04 +24’	1.93▼	3.88▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Varnamo 2–1–3 Osters IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/06/26 Sweden Superettan	Osters IF	3-0 HT 3-0	IFK Varnamo
14/09/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Osters IF	4-3 HT 2-2	IFK Varnamo
24/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Varnamo	1-1 HT 1-0	Osters IF
25/02/23 Club Friendly List	Osters IF	0-1 HT 0-1	IFK Varnamo
12/09/21 Sweden Superettan	Osters IF	2-0 HT 1-0	IFK Varnamo
17/07/21 Sweden Superettan	IFK Varnamo	2-0 HT 0-0	Osters IF

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	23	16	3	4	45	15	51
2	Falkenbergs FF	23	12	5	6	44	33	41
3	Ostersunds FK	23	10	9	4	32	24	39
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	23	11	5	7	39	30	38
5	IK Oddevold	23	9	8	6	37	32	35
6	Nordic United FC	23	9	8	6	36	35	35
7	Landskrona BoIS	23	9	7	7	31	25	34
8	Sandvikens IF	23	9	6	8	38	30	33
9	Osters IF	23	10	3	10	34	34	33
10	Helsingborg	23	8	5	10	36	44	29
11	IFK Varnamo	23	7	5	11	30	41	26
12	Ljungskile	23	6	7	10	29	33	25
13	Norrby IF	23	4	11	8	27	33	23
14	Orebro SK	23	5	8	10	24	34	23
15	IK Brage	23	5	7	11	36	44	22
16	GIF Sundsvall	23	5	1	17	16	47	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Varnamo	Osters IF
Nordic United FC	4-2 W	1-2 L
Varbergs BoIS FC	1-1 D	3-0 W
Ljungskile	1-0 W	3-2 W
Landskrona BoIS	1-1 D	0-1 L
Ostersunds FK	1-1 D	0-1 L
IK Brage	0-0 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: IFK Varnamo (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Varnamo

LLDWWDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	1-0	4-2	8	3	W
05/09	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	12	0	D
29/08	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
24/08	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
16/08	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
11/08	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	2-0	2-1	1	1	W
03/08	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-1	3-1	6	2	W
25/07	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
19/07	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-3	8	3	L
28/06	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	2	3	L

Osters IF

LWWLLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-2	12	2	L
04/09	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
30/08	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
25/08	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	1	7	W
15/08	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	2-2	3-2	3	4	W
08/08	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
01/08	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
27/07	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
18/07	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	1-1	3-2	11	7	W
27/06	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-2	10	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IFK Varnamo win (49%). Probabilities: IFK Varnamo 49%, draw 25%, Osters IF 25%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF?

The model expects 3.14 goals (IFK Varnamo 1.85 · Osters IF 1.29), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.