Prediction: FC Lahti vs IF Gnistan
Expected goals: 2.44 (FC Lahti 1.29 · IF Gnistan 1.14). The model gives 39% home, 28% draw, 32% away. Under 2.75 goals (58%) and both teams to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, FC Lahti sits at 3-3-4 (W-D-L), while IF Gnistan arrives on a 5-4-1 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for FC Lahti and 2 for IF Gnistan, with 3 draws.
| FC Lahti | Draw | IF Gnistan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 33% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IF Gnistan (rating 1493 vs 1547).
- H2H favours IF Gnistan: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Lahti | IF Gnistan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.4 | 1.4 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Lahti 1–3–2 IF Gnistan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | IF Gnistan | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Lahti |
| 22/02/26 Finland Liigacup | IF Gnistan | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Lahti |
| 05/10/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | IF Gnistan | 2-2 HT 1-1 | FC Lahti |
| 19/06/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Lahti | 3-3 HT 1-2 | IF Gnistan |
| 02/06/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | IF Gnistan | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FC Lahti |
| 17/02/24 Finland Liigacup | IF Gnistan | 1-2 HT 1-2 | FC Lahti |
Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS Kuopio | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 27 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | FC Inter | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | AC Oulu | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 26 |
| 4 | HJK Helsinki | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | VPS Vaasa | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 21 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 19 |
| 7 | TPS | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 19 |
| 8 | FC Ilves | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 27 | 16 |
| 9 | FC Lahti | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 13 |
| 10 | SJK | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 11 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 31 | 8 |
| 12 | IFK Mariehamn | 13 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 25 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Lahti | IF Gnistan |
|---|---|---|
| TPS | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| SJK | 2-3 L | 3-2 W |
| FC Ilves | 2-5 L | 0-2 L |
| IFK Mariehamn | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| VPS Vaasa | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: IF Gnistan (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Lahti
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 23/06 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 17/06 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/06 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 10/06 | FC Ilves Finland Cup |
2-4 | 2-5 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 30/05 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
3-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 26/05 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/05 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 13/05 | MP Finland Cup |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
IF Gnistan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 23/06 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 17/06 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 05/05 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Lahti vs IF Gnistan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Lahti win (39%). Probabilities: FC Lahti 39%, draw 28%, IF Gnistan 32%.
How many goals are expected in FC Lahti vs IF Gnistan?
The model expects 2.44 goals (FC Lahti 1.29 · IF Gnistan 1.14), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Lahti vs IF Gnistan?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.