Prediction: VPS Vaasa vs IFK Mariehamn
Expected goals: 2.96 (VPS Vaasa 2.2 · IFK Mariehamn 0.76). The model gives 70% home, 19% draw, 11% away. Over 2.75 goals (52%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 2-0.
Over its last 10 matches, VPS Vaasa sits at 4-4-2 (W-D-L), while IFK Mariehamn arrives on a 1-2-7 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for VPS Vaasa and 1 for IFK Mariehamn, with 2 draws.
| VPS Vaasa | Draw | IFK Mariehamn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| Market | 70% | 18% | 11% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VPS Vaasa (rating 1565 vs 1413).
- H2H favours VPS Vaasa: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| VPS Vaasa | IFK Mariehamn | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1 | 0.6 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.4 | 1.7 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · VPS Vaasa 3–2–1 IFK Mariehamn
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | IFK Mariehamn | 0-1 HT 0-1 | VPS Vaasa |
| 21/09/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | IFK Mariehamn | 2-1 HT 1-1 | VPS Vaasa |
| 01/08/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | VPS Vaasa | 1-1 HT 0-0 | IFK Mariehamn |
| 14/06/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | IFK Mariehamn | 1-5 HT 0-1 | VPS Vaasa |
| 28/07/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | VPS Vaasa | 2-1 HT 1-0 | IFK Mariehamn |
| 12/06/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | IFK Mariehamn | 0-0 HT 0-0 | VPS Vaasa |
Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS Kuopio | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 27 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | FC Inter | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | AC Oulu | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 26 |
| 4 | HJK Helsinki | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | VPS Vaasa | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 21 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 19 |
| 7 | TPS | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 19 |
| 8 | FC Ilves | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 27 | 16 |
| 9 | FC Lahti | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 13 |
| 10 | SJK | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 11 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 31 | 8 |
| 12 | IFK Mariehamn | 13 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 25 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | VPS Vaasa | IFK Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| FC Inter | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| IF Gnistan | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| AC Oulu | 5-1 W | 1-2 L |
| KuPS Kuopio | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| HJK Helsinki | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| FC Lahti | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: VPS Vaasa (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
VPS Vaasa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | FC Inter Finland Cup |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 23/06 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
3-1 | 5-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 17/06 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 10/06 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 26/05 | FC Haka Finland Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
IFK Mariehamn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 23/06 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/06 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 26/05 | FC Lahti Finland Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 13/05 | Puiu Finland Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in VPS Vaasa vs IFK Mariehamn?
According to our model, the most likely result is a VPS Vaasa win (70%). Probabilities: VPS Vaasa 70%, draw 19%, IFK Mariehamn 11%.
How many goals are expected in VPS Vaasa vs IFK Mariehamn?
The model expects 2.96 goals (VPS Vaasa 2.2 · IFK Mariehamn 0.76), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in VPS Vaasa vs IFK Mariehamn?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.