Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 04/07, 17:00

VPS Vaasa vs IFK Mariehamn

Expected goals: 2.58 (VPS Vaasa 1.97 · IFK Mariehamn 0.61). The model gives 70% home, 20% draw, 11% away. Over 2.5 goals (51%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 2-0.

70%1

70% 20% 11%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VPS Vaasa 1563 · IFK Mariehamn 1416

	VPS Vaasa	Draw	IFK Mariehamn
Our model	69%	22%	10%
Market	70%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.58VPS Vaasa 1.97 · IFK Mariehamn 0.61

Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 51%

BTTSNo · 52%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VPS Vaasa (rating 1563 vs 1416).
H2H favours VPS Vaasa: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VPS Vaasa	IFK Mariehamn
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.7	0.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.3	1.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.77

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.30 → 1.30 – 0%

X 5.00 → 5.00 – 0%

2 8.00 → 8.00 – 0%

Over/Under 2.5

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VPS Vaasa 3–2–1 IFK Mariehamn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	0-1 HT 0-1	VPS Vaasa
21/09/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	2-1 HT 1-1	VPS Vaasa
01/08/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	1-1 HT 0-0	IFK Mariehamn
14/06/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	1-5 HT 0-1	VPS Vaasa
28/07/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	2-1 HT 1-0	IFK Mariehamn
12/06/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	0-0 HT 0-0	VPS Vaasa

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	15	8	6	1	27	15	30
2	FC Inter	15	8	6	1	23	12	30
3	AC Oulu	14	8	2	4	20	15	26
4	HJK Helsinki	14	6	4	4	25	17	22
5	VPS Vaasa	13	5	6	2	17	11	21
6	IF Gnistan	13	5	4	4	19	17	19
7	TPS	13	5	4	4	15	13	19
8	FC Ilves	14	4	4	6	24	27	16
9	FC Lahti	13	3	4	6	15	15	13
10	SJK	13	2	5	6	15	21	11
11	FF Jaro	14	1	5	8	13	31	8
12	IFK Mariehamn	13	0	4	9	6	25	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VPS Vaasa	IFK Mariehamn
IF Gnistan	1-1 D	0-3 L
AC Oulu	5-1 W	1-2 L
KuPS Kuopio	1-1 D	1-1 D
HJK Helsinki	2-1 W	0-4 L
FC Lahti	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: VPS Vaasa (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

VPS Vaasa

WDWWLDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
23/06	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	3-1	5-1	2	2	W
17/06	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
13/06	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
10/06	KuPS Kuopio Finland Cup	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
30/05	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
26/05	FC Haka Finland Cup	1-0	4-0	3	4	W
22/05	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
18/05	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
13/05	AIFK Finland Cup	6-0	7-0	12	0	W

IFK Mariehamn

DWDLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
23/06	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
18/06	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
13/06	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-3	10	4	L
30/05	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
26/05	FC Lahti Finland Cup	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
23/05	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
16/05	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
13/05	Puiu Finland Cup	1-0	3-0	9	1	W
10/05	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-1	6	4	D