Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 25/07, 15:30
Prediction: IFK Mariehamn vs AC Oulu
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.38Total
IFK Mariehamn1.06
AC Oulu1.32
1X2
IFK Mariehamn
Draw
AC Oulu
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
IFK Mariehamn
0-1-9 (W-D-L)
AC Oulu
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
IFK Mariehamn
4–2
AC Oulu
(6 last)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Oulu (rating 1388 vs 1483).
- H2H favours IFK Mariehamn: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| IFK Mariehamn | AC Oulu | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 2.5 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 1 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.8 | 2 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Mariehamn 4–0–2 AC Oulu
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | AC Oulu | 2-1 HT 0-0 | IFK Mariehamn |
| 18/10/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | IFK Mariehamn | 2-0 HT 0-0 | AC Oulu |
| 26/07/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | IFK Mariehamn | 0-1 HT 0-0 | AC Oulu |
| 17/05/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | AC Oulu | 0-1 HT 0-0 | IFK Mariehamn |
| 19/10/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | AC Oulu | 1-2 HT 1-1 | IFK Mariehamn |
| 01/09/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | IFK Mariehamn | 2-1 HT 0-1 | AC Oulu |
Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS Kuopio | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 29 | 15 | 33 |
| 2 | FC Inter | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | VPS Vaasa | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 27 |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 26 |
| 5 | HJK Helsinki | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 20 | 25 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 20 | 25 |
| 7 | FC Lahti | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 15 | 22 |
| 8 | TPS | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 22 |
| 9 | FC Ilves | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
| 10 | SJK | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 14 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 12 |
| 12 | IFK Mariehamn | 16 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 35 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | IFK Mariehamn | AC Oulu |
|---|---|---|
| IF Gnistan | 2-4 L | 0-2 L |
| VPS Vaasa | 0-4 L | 1-5 L |
| FC Inter | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| FC Lahti | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| FF Jaro | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 5 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: AC Oulu (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
IFK Mariehamn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 23/06 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/06 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 26/05 | FC Lahti Finland Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
AC Oulu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 11/07 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-3 | 0-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 23/06 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 18/06 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 08/05 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in IFK Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
According to our model, the most likely result is an AC Oulu win (41%). Probabilities: IFK Mariehamn 28%, draw 30%, AC Oulu 41%.
How many goals are expected in IFK Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
The model expects 2.38 goals (IFK Mariehamn 1.06 · AC Oulu 1.32), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in IFK Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.