Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 26/09, 13:00

Prediction: Lyn (W) vs Honefoss (W)

Team pages: Lyn (W) · Honefoss (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Lyn (W)1.86

Honefoss (W)1.03

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Lyn (W) Draw Honefoss (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lyn (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWDLLLWLW

Honefoss (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDWLLLWD

Head-to-head

Lyn (W) 1–2–3 Honefoss (W) (6 last)

Honefoss (W)1-0Lyn (W)
Honefoss (W)2-1Lyn (W)
Honefoss (W)2-2Lyn (W)
Honefoss (W)1-0Lyn (W)
Lyn (W)1-1Honefoss (W)
Honefoss (W)0-1Lyn (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lyn (W) 1477 · Honefoss (W) 1444

	Lyn (W)	Draw	Honefoss (W)
Our model	56%	25%	20%
Market	57%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Honefoss (W): 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lyn (W)	Honefoss (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	0.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.90

24.33

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.81

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.57▲	Pinn 1.60
X	4.33 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.12 ★
2	6.00 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.48

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:36 +4’	1.38	4.33	6.00
15:13 +1’	1.57▲	3.90▼	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:55 +2’	1.60	4.10	4.45
15:00 +14’	1.60▼	4.12▲	4.48▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lyn (W) 1–2–3 Honefoss (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Honefoss (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Lyn (W)
06/03/26 Women’s Friendly	Honefoss (W)	2-1 HT 2-0	Lyn (W)
19/10/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Honefoss (W)	2-2 HT 0-0	Lyn (W)
09/08/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Honefoss (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Lyn (W)
29/03/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Lyn (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Honefoss (W)
27/02/25 Women’s Friendly	Honefoss (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Lyn (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	16	14	2	0	52	4	44
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	16	13	1	2	41	15	40
3	Rosenborg (W)	16	11	3	2	31	18	36
4	Valerenga (W)	16	10	1	5	41	24	31
5	Stabaek (W)	16	7	3	6	33	19	24
6	Lyn (W)	16	6	4	6	29	22	22
7	Molde FK (W)	16	5	3	8	23	29	18
8	LSK Kvinner (W)	16	4	3	9	22	31	15
9	Haugesund (W)	16	4	3	9	20	39	15
10	Honefoss (W)	16	3	3	10	12	29	12
11	Roa (W)	16	2	5	9	15	34	11
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	16	0	3	13	9	64	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lyn (W)	Honefoss (W)
LSK Kvinner (W)	3-2 W	2-3 L
SK Brann (W)	0-3 L	0-3 L
Roa (W)	3-1 W	0-0 D
Fortuna Aalesund (W)	1-2 L	0-1 L
Valerenga (W)	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Lyn (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lyn (W)

DLWDLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-1	3-2	8	3	W
13/09	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-3	2	1	L
31/08	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	3-1	6	3	W
20/08	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	2-3	3	0	L
15/08	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-2	0	4	L
20/06	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
13/06	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-2	4-4	4	2	D
31/05	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
26/05	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-4	6	1	L
15/05	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-0	3	5	D

Honefoss (W)

LLLDWLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
13/09	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
31/08	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
19/08	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
15/08	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	0-3	0	0	L
20/06	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
13/06	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
29/05	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
26/05	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	2-3	9	3	L
15/05	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-2	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lyn (W) vs Honefoss (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lyn (W) win (56%). Probabilities: Lyn (W) 56%, draw 24%, Honefoss (W) 20%.

How many goals are expected in Lyn (W) vs Honefoss (W)?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Lyn (W) 1.86 · Honefoss (W) 1.03), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lyn (W) vs Honefoss (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.