Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 04/10, 13:00

Prediction: Molde FK (W) vs Stabaek (W)

Team pages: Molde FK (W) · Stabaek (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Molde FK (W)1.34

Stabaek (W)1.92

1X2

26% 24% 50%

Molde FK (W) Draw Stabaek (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Molde FK (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDWDWLLL

Stabaek (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDWWLL

Head-to-head

Molde FK (W) 0–1 Stabaek (W) (1 last)

Stabaek (W)2-1Molde FK (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Molde FK (W) 1457 · Stabaek (W) 1516

	Molde FK (W)	Draw	Stabaek (W)
Our model	26%	24%	50%
Market	26%	24%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stabaek (W) (rating 1457 vs 1516).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Molde FK (W)	Stabaek (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.9	2.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	1.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.70

21.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.01

Under 31.79

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 2.02 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:55 +8’	3.50	3.70	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:24 +38’	3.21	3.56	2.00
14:03 +192’	3.17▼	3.55▼	2.02▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Molde FK (W) 0–0–1 Stabaek (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Stabaek (W)	2-1 HT 2-0	Molde FK (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	17	15	2	0	53	4	47
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	17	13	2	2	42	16	41
3	Rosenborg (W)	17	11	4	2	32	19	37
4	Valerenga (W)	17	11	1	5	45	24	34
5	Stabaek (W)	17	7	3	7	33	20	24
6	Lyn (W)	17	6	5	6	30	23	23
7	Molde FK (W)	17	5	3	9	23	33	18
8	Haugesund (W)	17	5	3	9	22	40	18
9	LSK Kvinner (W)	17	4	3	10	23	33	15
10	Honefoss (W)	17	3	4	10	13	30	13
11	Roa (W)	17	2	5	10	16	36	11
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	17	1	3	13	11	65	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Molde FK (W)	Stabaek (W)
Honefoss (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
LSK Kvinner (W)	1-0 W	5-1 W
Roa (W)	1-1 D	0-1 L
Bodo/Glimt (W)	2-1 W	7-1 W
Haugesund (W)	3-3 D	1-1 D
Rosenborg (W)	2-3 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Stabaek (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Molde FK (W)

WLLDWDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-4	4	1	L
20/09	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-4	2	1	L
13/09	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
22/08	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/08	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-1	9	0	D
08/08	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
20/06	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	3-3	4	2	D
13/06	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	1-2	5	3	L
26/05	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	2-3	2	0	L
15/05	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	2-1	2	3	W

Stabaek (W)

LWWWLDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-1	0	0	L
17/09	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	2-4	6	3	L
13/09	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-1	5-1	6	2	W
22/08	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	6-0	7-1	5	3	W
15/08	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
20/06	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-1	12	1	L
13/06	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
29/05	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
26/05	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
15/05	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	1-2	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Molde FK (W) vs Stabaek (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Stabaek (W) win (50%). Probabilities: Molde FK (W) 26%, draw 24%, Stabaek (W) 50%.

How many goals are expected in Molde FK (W) vs Stabaek (W)?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Molde FK (W) 1.34 · Stabaek (W) 1.92), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Molde FK (W) vs Stabaek (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.