Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 04/10, 17:00

Prediction: Valerenga (W) vs Rosenborg (W)

Team pages: Valerenga (W) · Rosenborg (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.7Total

Valerenga (W)2.01

Rosenborg (W)1.69

1X2

44% 24% 32%

Valerenga (W) Draw Rosenborg (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Valerenga (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWWWWW

Rosenborg (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Valerenga (W) 4–2 Rosenborg (W) (6 last)

Rosenborg (W)3-2Valerenga (W)
Rosenborg (W)0-2Valerenga (W)
Rosenborg (W)1-3Valerenga (W)
Valerenga (W)2-0Rosenborg (W)
Rosenborg (W)2-0Valerenga (W)
Rosenborg (W)0-1Valerenga (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valerenga (W) 1579 · Rosenborg (W) 1549

	Valerenga (W)	Draw	Rosenborg (W)
Our model	45%	23%	32%
Market	44%	25%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Valerenga (W): 4-0-2.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valerenga (W)	Rosenborg (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.7	2.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.6	4 / 8.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.60

22.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.96

Under 31.81

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 16:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.38▲	Pinn 2.42
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.69 ★
2	2.88 → 2.45▼	Pinn 2.54

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:35 +24’	2.05	3.60	2.88
22:41 +13’	2.05	3.40▼	3.00▲
01:01 +26’	2.20▲	3.40	2.80▼
08:15 +6’	2.15▼	3.50▲	2.80
16:59	2.38▲	3.50	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:42 +17’	2.26	3.44	2.74
04:00 +1’	2.25▼	3.46▲	2.73▼
05:02 +38’	2.26▲	3.49▲	2.75▲
08:17 +4’	2.25▼	3.53▲	2.74▼
08:41 +61’	2.24▼	3.59▲	2.73▼
10:40 +48’	2.23▼	3.65▲	2.71▼
16:33 +26’	2.42▲	3.69▲	2.54▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 6 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valerenga (W) 4–0–2 Rosenborg (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Rosenborg (W)	3-2 HT 2-1	Valerenga (W)
23/11/25 Norway Cup Women	Rosenborg (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Valerenga (W)
07/11/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Rosenborg (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	Valerenga (W)
15/05/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Valerenga (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Rosenborg (W)
16/04/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Rosenborg (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Valerenga (W)
24/11/24 Norway Cup Women	Rosenborg (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Valerenga (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	18	15	2	1	54	6	47
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	18	14	2	2	44	17	44
3	Rosenborg (W)	18	11	5	2	33	20	38
4	Valerenga (W)	18	11	2	5	46	25	35
5	Stabaek (W)	18	8	3	7	36	20	27
6	Lyn (W)	18	7	5	6	34	26	26
7	Molde FK (W)	18	5	3	10	23	36	18
8	Haugesund (W)	18	5	3	10	25	44	18
9	Honefoss (W)	18	4	4	10	16	30	16
10	LSK Kvinner (W)	18	4	3	11	24	35	15
11	Roa (W)	18	3	5	10	18	37	14
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	18	1	3	14	11	68	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valerenga (W)	Rosenborg (W)
Molde FK (W)	4-0 W	3-2 W
Haugesund (W)	2-1 W	1-0 W
Lyn (W)	0-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valerenga (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	4-0	2	1	W
17/09	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
11/09	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	3-2	6-3	6	1	W
19/08	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	2-1	10	1	W
14/08	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	4-1	6	0	W
20/06	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
13/06	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
31/05	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
26/05	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	5-0	7-1	6	3	W
15/05	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-2	5	3	L

Rosenborg (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
17/09	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	4-2	10	3	W
13/09	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-0	18	2	W
20/08	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	3-2	9	0	W
15/08	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
20/06	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
13/06	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-1	4-4	3	2	D
30/05	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-1	6	0	L
26/05	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	3-2	9	0	W
15/05	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	2-1	16	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valerenga (W) vs Rosenborg (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valerenga (W) win (44%). Probabilities: Valerenga (W) 44%, draw 24%, Rosenborg (W) 32%.

How many goals are expected in Valerenga (W) vs Rosenborg (W)?

The model expects 3.7 goals (Valerenga (W) 2.01 · Rosenborg (W) 1.69), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Valerenga (W) vs Rosenborg (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.