Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 04/10, 15:00

Prediction: SK Brann (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Team pages: SK Brann (W) · Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

SK Brann (W)2.46

Fortuna Aalesund (W)0.8

1X2

73% 17% 10%

SK Brann (W) Draw Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Brann (W) 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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Fortuna Aalesund (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

SK Brann (W) 4–0 Fortuna Aalesund (W) (4 last)

SK Brann (W)3-1Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Fortuna Aalesund (W)1-2SK Brann (W)
Fortuna Aalesund (W)0-4SK Brann (W)
Fortuna Aalesund (W)0-3SK Brann (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Brann (W) 1675 · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 1602

	SK Brann (W)	Draw	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Our model	73%	18%	9%
Market	74%	16%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Brann (W) (rating 1675 vs 1602).
H2H favours SK Brann (W): 4-0-0.
High corners: 18 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Brann (W)	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 0.2	3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.2	1.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.3 / 8.8	4 / 9.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.2 / 0	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.50

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Pinn 1.29 ★
X	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 5.57
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:49 +21’	1.22	5.50	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:11 +136’	1.29	5.57	7.26

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Brann (W) 4–0–0 Fortuna Aalesund (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 Norway Cup Women	SK Brann (W)	3-1 HT 3-1	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
30/05/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	1-2 HT 1-0	SK Brann (W)
21/08/24 Norway Cup Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	0-4 HT 0-2	SK Brann (W)
24/08/21 Norway Cup Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	SK Brann (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	17	15	2	0	53	4	47
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	17	13	2	2	42	16	41
3	Rosenborg (W)	17	11	4	2	32	19	37
4	Valerenga (W)	17	11	1	5	45	24	34
5	Stabaek (W)	17	7	3	7	33	20	24
6	Lyn (W)	17	6	5	6	30	23	23
7	Molde FK (W)	17	5	3	9	23	33	18
8	Haugesund (W)	17	5	3	9	22	40	18
9	LSK Kvinner (W)	17	4	3	10	23	33	15
10	Honefoss (W)	17	3	4	10	13	30	13
11	Roa (W)	17	2	5	10	16	36	11
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	17	1	3	13	11	65	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Brann (W)	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Bodo/Glimt (W)	4-0 W	2-0 W
Lyn (W)	3-0 W	2-1 W
Roa (W)	5-1 W	3-2 W
Honefoss (W)	3-0 W	1-0 W
LSK Kvinner (W)	0-0 D	3-0 W
Haugesund (W)	7-0 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: SK Brann (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Brann (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
19/09	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
13/09	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	3-0	11	1	W
21/08	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	5-1	13	1	W
15/08	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	3-0	6	0	W
21/06	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
13/06	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
30/05	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
26/05	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	4-0	2	1	W
15/05	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	3-0	7-0	18	0	W

Fortuna Aalesund (W)

WLWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
20/09	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	4-1	11	1	W
11/09	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	2-0	10	2	W
31/08	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
22/08	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	3-0	5-1	15	1	W
15/08	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	2-1	10	4	W
20/06	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	5-1	8-1	14	1	W
13/06	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
30/05	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
26/05	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	3-2	10	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Brann (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SK Brann (W) win (73%). Probabilities: SK Brann (W) 73%, draw 17%, Fortuna Aalesund (W) 10%.

How many goals are expected in SK Brann (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

The model expects 3.26 goals (SK Brann (W) 2.46 · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 0.8), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Brann (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.