Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 04/10, 13:00

Prediction: Honefoss (W) vs Bodo/Glimt (W)

Team pages: Honefoss (W) · Bodo/Glimt (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Honefoss (W)2.27

Bodo/Glimt (W)0.82

1X2

70% 19% 12%

Honefoss (W) Draw Bodo/Glimt (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Honefoss (W) 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLLWDD

Bodo/Glimt (W) 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLDLLW

Head-to-head

Honefoss (W) 3–2–1 Bodo/Glimt (W) (6 last)

Bodo/Glimt (W)0-0Honefoss (W)
Honefoss (W)3-2Bodo/Glimt (W)
Honefoss (W)0-1Bodo/Glimt (W)
Bodo/Glimt (W)1-2Honefoss (W)
Bodo/Glimt (W)0-5Honefoss (W)
Honefoss (W)0-0Bodo/Glimt (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Honefoss (W) 1468 · Bodo/Glimt (W) 1407

	Honefoss (W)	Draw	Bodo/Glimt (W)
Our model	69%	20%	11%
Market	70%	18%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Honefoss (W) (rating 1468 vs 1407).
H2H favours Honefoss (W): 3-2-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Honefoss (W)	Bodo/Glimt (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	0.9 / 3.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.3 / 2.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.2	1 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Pinn 1.32 ★
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.14
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +7’	1.28	5.00	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:37 +26’	1.32	5.14	7.08

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Honefoss (W) 3–2–1 Bodo/Glimt (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Bodo/Glimt (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Honefoss (W)
02/11/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Honefoss (W)	3-2 HT 1-2	Bodo/Glimt (W)
24/05/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Honefoss (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Bodo/Glimt (W)
25/04/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Bodo/Glimt (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Honefoss (W)
16/11/24 Norway Division 1 Women	Bodo/Glimt (W)	0-5 HT 0-4	Honefoss (W)
06/10/24 Norway Division 1 Women	Honefoss (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Bodo/Glimt (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	17	15	2	0	53	4	47
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	17	13	2	2	42	16	41
3	Rosenborg (W)	17	11	4	2	32	19	37
4	Valerenga (W)	17	11	1	5	45	24	34
5	Stabaek (W)	17	7	3	7	33	20	24
6	Lyn (W)	17	6	5	6	30	23	23
7	Molde FK (W)	17	5	3	9	23	33	18
8	Haugesund (W)	17	5	3	9	22	40	18
9	LSK Kvinner (W)	17	4	3	10	23	33	15
10	Honefoss (W)	17	3	4	10	13	30	13
11	Roa (W)	17	2	5	10	16	36	11
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	17	1	3	13	11	65	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Honefoss (W)	Bodo/Glimt (W)
Roa (W)	0-0 D	2-1 W
Molde FK (W)	1-0 W	1-2 L
Fortuna Aalesund (W)	0-1 L	0-2 L
Valerenga (W)	1-2 L	1-4 L
SK Brann (W)	0-3 L	0-4 L
Stabaek (W)	1-2 L	1-7 L
LSK Kvinner (W)	2-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Honefoss (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Honefoss (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
19/09	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
13/09	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
31/08	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
19/08	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
15/08	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	0-3	0	0	L
20/06	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
13/06	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
29/05	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
26/05	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	2-3	9	3	L

Bodo/Glimt (W)

LLLLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
19/09	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
11/09	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	0-2	2	2	L
01/09	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
22/08	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-6	1-7	2	3	L
14/08	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	1-4	0	0	L
08/08	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
20/06	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-5	1-8	2	1	L
13/06	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	1-2	0	2	L
26/05	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-5	1-7	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Honefoss (W) vs Bodo/Glimt (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Honefoss (W) win (70%). Probabilities: Honefoss (W) 70%, draw 19%, Bodo/Glimt (W) 12%.

How many goals are expected in Honefoss (W) vs Bodo/Glimt (W)?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Honefoss (W) 2.27 · Bodo/Glimt (W) 0.82), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Honefoss (W) vs Bodo/Glimt (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.