Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 26/09, 17:00

Prediction: Rosenborg (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Team pages: Rosenborg (W) · Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Rosenborg (W)1.99

Fortuna Aalesund (W)1.31

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Rosenborg (W) Draw Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Rosenborg (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLDWWWWW

Fortuna Aalesund (W) 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Rosenborg (W) 3–1 Fortuna Aalesund (W) (4 last)

Fortuna Aalesund (W)1-0Rosenborg (W)
Fortuna Aalesund (W)1-2Rosenborg (W)
Rosenborg (W)4-0Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Fortuna Aalesund (W)1-5Rosenborg (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rosenborg (W) 1560 · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 1614

	Rosenborg (W)	Draw	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortuna Aalesund (W) (rating 1560 vs 1614).
H2H favours Rosenborg (W): 3-0-1.
High corners: 18.2 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rosenborg (W)	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.5	3.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	1.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 8.5	4.3 / 9.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.70

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.89 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:13 +46’	1.73	3.70	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:17	1.89	3.62	3.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rosenborg (W) 3–0–1 Fortuna Aalesund (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Rosenborg (W)
15/06/22 Norway Cup Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Rosenborg (W)
26/02/22 Women’s Friendly	Rosenborg (W)	4-0 HT 1-0	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
06/08/14 Norway Cup Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	1-5 HT 1-1	Rosenborg (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	16	14	2	0	52	4	44
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	16	13	1	2	41	15	40
3	Rosenborg (W)	16	11	3	2	31	18	36
4	Valerenga (W)	16	10	1	5	41	24	31
5	Stabaek (W)	16	7	3	6	33	19	24
6	Lyn (W)	16	6	4	6	29	22	22
7	Molde FK (W)	16	5	3	8	23	29	18
8	LSK Kvinner (W)	16	4	3	9	22	31	15
9	Haugesund (W)	16	4	3	9	20	39	15
10	Honefoss (W)	16	3	3	10	12	29	12
11	Roa (W)	16	2	5	9	15	34	11
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	16	0	3	13	9	64	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rosenborg (W)	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Haugesund (W)	1-0 W	5-1 W
Lyn (W)	3-2 W	2-1 W
LSK Kvinner (W)	2-1 W	3-0 W
Molde FK (W)	3-2 W	4-1 W
Bodo/Glimt (W)	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Fortuna Aalesund (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rosenborg (W)

WWWLDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	4-2	10	3	W
13/09	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-0	18	2	W
20/08	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	3-2	9	0	W
15/08	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
20/06	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
13/06	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-1	4-4	3	2	D
30/05	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-1	6	0	L
26/05	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	3-2	9	0	W
15/05	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	2-1	16	1	W
08/05	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	3-0	6	1	W

Fortuna Aalesund (W)

WWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	4-1	11	1	W
11/09	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	2-0	10	2	W
31/08	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
22/08	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	3-0	5-1	15	1	W
15/08	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	2-1	10	4	W
20/06	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	5-1	8-1	14	1	W
13/06	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
30/05	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
26/05	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	3-2	10	0	W
15/05	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	2-0	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rosenborg (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rosenborg (W) win (52%). Probabilities: Rosenborg (W) 52%, draw 24%, Fortuna Aalesund (W) 24%.

How many goals are expected in Rosenborg (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Rosenborg (W) 1.99 · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 1.31), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Rosenborg (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.