Football · Norway Division 1 · 02/11, 19:00

Prediction: Kongsvinger vs Stabaek

Team pages: Kongsvinger · Stabaek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.08Total

Kongsvinger2.25

Stabaek1.83

1X2

47% 22% 31%

Kongsvinger Draw Stabaek

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Kongsvinger 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWWLWL

Stabaek 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLDWWW

Head-to-head

Kongsvinger 3–1–2 Stabaek (6 last)

Stabaek2-0Kongsvinger
Stabaek2-3Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger2-1Stabaek
Stabaek2-2Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger1-0Stabaek
Kongsvinger1-3Stabaek

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kongsvinger 1561 · Stabaek 1518

	Kongsvinger	Draw	Stabaek
Our model	47%	21%	31%
Market	47%	22%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 4.08 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kongsvinger (rating 1561 vs 1518).
H2H favours Kongsvinger: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kongsvinger	Stabaek
Goals for / against (FT)	3.4 / 1.7	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6	3 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.10

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 2.01
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.40 ★
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.93

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:23 +6’	1.91	4.10	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:10 +17’	2.03	4.40	2.91
14:37 +23’	2.01▼	4.40	2.93▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kongsvinger 3–1–2 Stabaek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Norway Division 1	Stabaek	2-0 HT 1-0	Kongsvinger
21/03/26 Europe Friendlies	Stabaek	2-3 HT 2-1	Kongsvinger
10/08/25 Norway Division 1	Kongsvinger	2-1 HT 1-0	Stabaek
31/05/25 Norway Division 1	Stabaek	2-2 HT 2-1	Kongsvinger
23/03/25 Club Friendly List	Kongsvinger	1-0 HT 1-0	Stabaek
21/10/24 Norway Division 1	Kongsvinger	1-3 HT 0-1	Stabaek

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haugesund	28	20	2	6	81	47	62
2	Stromsgodset	28	18	6	4	76	34	60
3	Kongsvinger	28	18	5	5	82	45	59
4	Stabaek	28	17	4	7	66	34	55
5	Odd BK	28	13	6	9	54	43	45
6	Bryne	28	12	4	12	40	41	40
7	Ranheim	28	11	5	12	71	68	38
8	Hodd	28	11	5	12	49	56	38
9	Strommen	28	10	6	12	49	59	36
10	Egersund	28	9	8	11	45	56	35
11	Lyn 1896	28	9	4	15	42	59	31
12	Sogndal	28	8	6	14	47	61	30
13	Sandnes Ulf	28	8	5	15	39	55	29
14	Moss	28	8	5	15	41	59	29
15	Asane	28	7	5	16	40	62	25
16	Raufoss	28	6	2	20	31	74	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kongsvinger	Stabaek
Sogndal	1-3 L	2-1 W
Sandnes Ulf	4-0 W	4-1 W
Ranheim	6-2 W	4-2 W
Moss	2-0 W	2-3 L
Hodd	5-1 W	1-2 L
Odd BK	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kongsvinger (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kongsvinger

WDWDWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Sogndal Norway Division 1	1-1	1-3	8	0	L
18/10	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	2-0	4-0	7	3	W
14/10	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	0-4	1-5	3	2	L
11/10	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-2	6-2	9	6	W
05/10	Moss Norway Division 1	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
20/09	Hodd Norway Division 1	2-1	5-1	11	4	W
13/09	Egersund Norway Division 1	0-1	1-1	0	3	D
05/09	Raufoss Norway Division 1	3-0	9-1	8	0	W
30/08	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	2-2	4-4	5	5	D
26/08	Odd BK Norway Division 1	1-0	1-0	4	5	W

Stabaek

WLLLWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Odd BK Norway Division 1	2-0	2-0	6	5	W
18/10	Asane Norway Division 1	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
14/10	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	1-0	4-1	8	3	W
11/10	Strommen Norway Division 1	1-1	2-2	15	2	D
03/10	Haugesund Norway Division 1	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
20/09	Sogndal Norway Division 1	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
12/09	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-2	0-2	6	1	L
05/09	Moss Norway Division 1	2-2	2-3	8	1	L
30/08	Hodd Norway Division 1	0-0	1-2	11	2	L
26/08	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-2	4-2	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kongsvinger vs Stabaek?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kongsvinger win (47%). Probabilities: Kongsvinger 47%, draw 22%, Stabaek 31%.

How many goals are expected in Kongsvinger vs Stabaek?

The model expects 4.08 goals (Kongsvinger 2.25 · Stabaek 1.83), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Kongsvinger vs Stabaek?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.