Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 26/09, 13:00

Prediction: Molde FK (W) vs Valerenga (W)

Team pages: Molde FK (W) · Valerenga (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

Molde FK (W)1.15

Valerenga (W)2.59

1X2

14% 19% 67%

Molde FK (W) Draw Valerenga (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Molde FK (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLDWDWLL

Valerenga (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLWWWW

Head-to-head

Molde FK (W) 1–0 Valerenga (W) (1 last)

Valerenga (W)1-2Molde FK (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Molde FK (W) 1484 · Valerenga (W) 1540

	Molde FK (W)	Draw	Valerenga (W)
Our model	14%	18%	68%
Market	14%	19%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerenga (W) (rating 1484 vs 1540).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Molde FK (W)	Valerenga (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	2.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.8	1.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.50

X4.75

21.33

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.86

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.11 ★
2	1.33 → 1.33	Pinn 1.39

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:55 +3’	6.50	4.75	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:21 +36’	5.68	5.16	1.38
14:55 +19’	5.62▼	5.11▼	1.39▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Molde FK (W) 1–0–0 Valerenga (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Valerenga (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Molde FK (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	16	14	2	0	52	4	44
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	16	13	1	2	41	15	40
3	Rosenborg (W)	16	11	3	2	31	18	36
4	Valerenga (W)	16	10	1	5	41	24	31
5	Stabaek (W)	16	7	3	6	33	19	24
6	Lyn (W)	16	6	4	6	29	22	22
7	Molde FK (W)	16	5	3	8	23	29	18
8	LSK Kvinner (W)	16	4	3	9	22	31	15
9	Haugesund (W)	16	4	3	9	20	39	15
10	Honefoss (W)	16	3	3	10	12	29	12
11	Roa (W)	16	2	5	9	15	34	11
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	16	0	3	13	9	64	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Molde FK (W)	Valerenga (W)
Honefoss (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
Roa (W)	1-1 D	6-3 W
Bodo/Glimt (W)	2-1 W	4-1 W
Haugesund (W)	3-3 D	2-1 W
Rosenborg (W)	2-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Valerenga (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Molde FK (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-4	2	1	L
13/09	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
22/08	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/08	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-1	9	0	D
08/08	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
20/06	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	3-3	4	2	D
13/06	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	1-2	5	3	L
26/05	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	2-3	2	0	L
15/05	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
08/05	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	4-0	3	1	W

Valerenga (W)

WLWLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
11/09	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	3-2	6-3	6	1	W
19/08	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	2-1	10	1	W
14/08	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	4-1	6	0	W
20/06	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
13/06	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
31/05	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
26/05	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	5-0	7-1	6	3	W
15/05	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
08/05	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	3-0	9	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Molde FK (W) vs Valerenga (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Valerenga (W) win (67%). Probabilities: Molde FK (W) 14%, draw 19%, Valerenga (W) 67%.

How many goals are expected in Molde FK (W) vs Valerenga (W)?

The model expects 3.74 goals (Molde FK (W) 1.15 · Valerenga (W) 2.59), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Molde FK (W) vs Valerenga (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.