Football · Norway Eliteserien · 09/08, 17:00

Prediction: Ham-Kam vs Aalesund

Team pages: Ham-Kam · Aalesund

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Ham-Kam1.84

Aalesund1.46

1X2

45% 26% 29%

Ham-Kam Draw Aalesund

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ham-Kam 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDWDLLLW

Aalesund 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWDLDL

Head-to-head

Ham-Kam 2–3–1 Aalesund (6 last)

Aalesund2-2Ham-Kam
Aalesund2-2Ham-Kam
Aalesund0-2Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam2-1Aalesund
Aalesund3-1Ham-Kam
Aalesund0-0Ham-Kam

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ham-Kam 1505 · Aalesund 1492

	Ham-Kam	Draw	Aalesund
Our model	46%	25%	30%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ham-Kam: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ham-Kam	Aalesund
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	2.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.2	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.06
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.84 ★
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.29

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:36 +1’	2.05	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:36	2.06	3.84	3.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ham-Kam 2–3–1 Aalesund

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Aalesund	2-2 HT 1-1	Ham-Kam
20/05/25 Norway Cup	Aalesund	2-2 HT 1-1	Ham-Kam
13/08/23 Norway Eliteserien	Aalesund	0-2 HT 0-1	Ham-Kam
07/07/23 Norway Eliteserien	Ham-Kam	2-1 HT 0-0	Aalesund
17/03/23 Club Friendly List	Aalesund	3-1 HT 2-1	Ham-Kam
16/10/22 Norway Eliteserien	Aalesund	0-0 HT 0-0	Ham-Kam

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	16	12	2	2	41	11	38
2	Viking FK	15	12	1	2	37	14	37
3	Tromso	15	9	4	2	26	15	31
4	Lillestrom	15	8	1	6	22	18	25
5	Molde	14	7	2	5	25	19	23
6	Sarpsborg	14	6	3	5	15	16	21
7	Ham-Kam	15	6	3	6	23	26	21
8	Valerenga	15	6	2	7	22	27	20
9	SK Brann	15	6	1	8	30	25	19
10	Rosenborg	14	5	3	6	19	18	18
11	Fredrikstad	15	5	2	8	16	27	17
12	Sandefjord	15	4	3	8	13	21	15
13	Aalesund	14	2	7	5	19	29	13
14	KFUM	14	3	3	8	15	25	12
15	Kristiansund BK	14	3	3	8	12	23	12
16	IK Start	16	2	4	10	16	37	10

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ham-Kam	Aalesund
Valerenga	3-0 W	1-6 L
Tromso	1-4 L	2-6 L
Sandefjord	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ham-Kam (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ham-Kam

LWDDWDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
26/07	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
22/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	1	1	L
18/07	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-4	1	0	L
12/07	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
27/06	IFK Goteborg Club Friendly List	0-1	2-1	4	1	W
20/06	Fredrikstad Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
29/05	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
25/05	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
16/05	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-2	1-2	7	3	L

Aalesund

LWWDDWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-6	9	1	L
26/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
16/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-3	1-6	7	0	L
11/07	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
27/06	Kristiansund BK Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
29/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-2	8	2	D
25/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
20/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
16/05	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-2	0	8	W
03/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-1	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ham-Kam win (45%). Probabilities: Ham-Kam 45%, draw 26%, Aalesund 29%.

How many goals are expected in Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Ham-Kam 1.84 · Aalesund 1.46), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.