Football · Norway Eliteserien · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Viking FK vs Sarpsborg

Team pages: Viking FK · Sarpsborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Viking FK2.18

Sarpsborg1.33

1X2

56% 22% 22%

Viking FK Draw Sarpsborg

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Viking FK 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLWWDW

Sarpsborg 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLWDWD

Head-to-head

Viking FK 2–2–2 Sarpsborg (6 last)

Sarpsborg1-0Viking FK
Viking FK2-0Sarpsborg
Sarpsborg3-3Viking FK
Sarpsborg1-0Viking FK
Viking FK0-0Sarpsborg
Sarpsborg1-3Viking FK

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Viking FK (rating 1589 vs 1516).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Viking FK	Sarpsborg
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 7	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.99

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:16

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.34 → 1.37▲	Pinn 1.37
X	5.72 → 5.63▼	Pinn 5.63
2	7.07 → 7.01▼	Pinn 7.01

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:50 +1’	1.34	5.72	7.07
19:16	1.37▲	5.63▼	7.01▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Viking FK 2–2–2 Sarpsborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	1-0 HT 1-0	Viking FK
01/03/26 Europe Friendlies	Viking FK	2-0 HT 1-0	Sarpsborg
27/09/25 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	3-3 HT 1-3	Viking FK
09/07/25 Norway Cup	Sarpsborg	1-0 HT 0-0	Viking FK
04/05/25 Norway Eliteserien	Viking FK	0-0 HT 0-0	Sarpsborg
27/10/24 Norway Eliteserien	Sarpsborg	1-3 HT 1-1	Viking FK

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	16	12	2	2	41	11	38
2	Viking FK	15	12	1	2	37	14	37
3	Tromso	15	9	4	2	26	15	31
4	Lillestrom	15	8	1	6	22	18	25
5	Molde	14	7	2	5	25	19	23
6	Sarpsborg	14	6	3	5	15	16	21
7	Ham-Kam	15	6	3	6	23	26	21
8	Valerenga	15	6	2	7	22	27	20
9	SK Brann	15	6	1	8	30	25	19
10	Rosenborg	14	5	3	6	19	18	18
11	Fredrikstad	15	5	2	8	16	27	17
12	Sandefjord	15	4	3	8	13	21	15
13	Aalesund	14	2	7	5	19	29	13
14	KFUM	14	3	3	8	15	25	12
15	Kristiansund BK	14	3	3	8	12	23	12
16	IK Start	16	2	4	10	16	37	10

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Viking FK	Sarpsborg
Lillestrom	2-1 W	1-3 L
Kristiansund BK	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Viking FK (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Viking FK

WWWWDLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	3-0	3-0	5	5	W
26/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	10	7	D
22/07	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	9	6	W
18/07	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
12/07	Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
03/07	Sonderjyske Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
24/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
16/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-3	6-3	12	5	W
10/05	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
01/05	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	2-0	3-0	7	5	W

Sarpsborg

LWLWWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-3	4	2	D
26/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
18/07	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
12/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
03/07	Lillestrom Europe Friendlies	1-3	1-3	4	2	L
29/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
25/05	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
16/05	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	2-2	2-3	0	1	L
09/05	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	11	8	W
03/05	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Viking FK vs Sarpsborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Viking FK win (56%). Probabilities: Viking FK 56%, draw 22%, Sarpsborg 22%.

How many goals are expected in Viking FK vs Sarpsborg?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Viking FK 2.18 · Sarpsborg 1.33), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Viking FK vs Sarpsborg?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.