Football · Norway Eliteserien · 09/08, 14:30

Prediction: Lillestrom vs Rosenborg

Team pages: Lillestrom · Rosenborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Lillestrom1.75

Rosenborg1.5

1X2

43% 26% 32%

Lillestrom Draw Rosenborg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lillestrom 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWWWLL

Rosenborg 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWWLWL

Head-to-head

Lillestrom 2–1–3 Rosenborg (6 last)

Rosenborg2-0Lillestrom
Lillestrom1-1Rosenborg
Rosenborg4-0Lillestrom
Lillestrom3-0Rosenborg
Rosenborg1-2Lillestrom
Rosenborg3-1Lillestrom

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lillestrom 1479 · Rosenborg 1491

	Lillestrom	Draw	Rosenborg
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	42%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Rosenborg: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lillestrom	Rosenborg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.4	2.9 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.40 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.62
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:27 +7’	2.15	3.50	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34	2.40	3.62	2.82

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lillestrom 2–1–3 Rosenborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Norway Eliteserien	Rosenborg	2-0 HT 2-0	Lillestrom
15/09/24 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	1-1 HT 1-1	Rosenborg
21/08/24 Norway Eliteserien	Rosenborg	4-0 HT 2-0	Lillestrom
24/09/23 Norway Eliteserien	Lillestrom	3-0 HT 1-0	Rosenborg
09/07/23 Norway Eliteserien	Rosenborg	1-2 HT 1-0	Lillestrom
18/09/22 Norway Eliteserien	Rosenborg	3-1 HT 2-0	Lillestrom

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	16	12	2	2	41	11	38
2	Viking FK	15	12	1	2	37	14	37
3	Tromso	15	9	4	2	26	15	31
4	Lillestrom	15	8	1	6	22	18	25
5	Molde	14	7	2	5	25	19	23
6	Sarpsborg	14	6	3	5	15	16	21
7	Ham-Kam	15	6	3	6	23	26	21
8	Valerenga	15	6	2	7	22	27	20
9	SK Brann	15	6	1	8	30	25	19
10	Rosenborg	14	5	3	6	19	18	18
11	Fredrikstad	15	5	2	8	16	27	17
12	Sandefjord	15	4	3	8	13	21	15
13	Aalesund	14	2	7	5	19	29	13
14	KFUM	14	3	3	8	15	25	12
15	Kristiansund BK	14	3	3	8	12	23	12
16	IK Start	16	2	4	10	16	37	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lillestrom	Rosenborg
Bodo/Glimt	0-4 L	2-2 D
KFUM	2-1 W	0-2 L
Fredrikstad	2-0 W	4-0 W
Kristiansund BK	1-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Rosenborg (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lillestrom

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
22/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
18/07	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
11/07	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
03/07	Sarpsborg Europe Friendlies	3-1	3-1	8	2	W
26/06	Degerfors Club Friendly List	2-1	2-3	5	1	L
20/06	Midtjylland Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
25/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
20/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	11	L
16/05	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-1	6	5	W

Rosenborg

WLLDWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	0-1	2-3	12	5	L
27/07	Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien	2-0	4-0	10	1	W
24/07	Man Utd Elite Club Friendlies	0-1	0-5	1	1	L
18/07	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
12/07	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	2-0	3-0	8	1	W
05/07	Molde Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-1	4	8	W
29/05	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
25/05	KFUM Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	2	2	L
16/05	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-3	11	8	L
10/05	Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien	2-0	2-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lillestrom win (43%). Probabilities: Lillestrom 43%, draw 26%, Rosenborg 32%.

How many goals are expected in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Lillestrom 1.75 · Rosenborg 1.5), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.