Football · Norway Eliteserien · 16/08, 14:30

Prediction: Aalesund vs Valerenga

Team pages: Aalesund · Valerenga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Aalesund2.05

Valerenga1.68

1X2

46% 23% 31%

Aalesund Draw Valerenga

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Aalesund 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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Valerenga 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Aalesund 0–6 Valerenga (6 last)

Valerenga6-1Aalesund
Valerenga4-1Aalesund
Aalesund0-2Valerenga
Valerenga3-1Aalesund
Aalesund0-1Valerenga
Valerenga4-0Aalesund

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Valerenga: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aalesund	Valerenga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.2	1.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	1.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.2	2.6 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.01

Under 3.51.83

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.83 → 2.83	Pinn 2.83
X	3.99 → 3.99	Pinn 3.99
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:43	2.83	3.99	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aalesund 0–0–6 Valerenga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/07/26 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	6-1 HT 3-0	Aalesund
24/09/24 Norway Division 1	Valerenga	4-1 HT 2-0	Aalesund
11/05/24 Norway Division 1	Aalesund	0-2 HT 0-1	Valerenga
17/09/23 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	3-1 HT 1-1	Aalesund
10/04/23 Norway Eliteserien	Aalesund	0-1 HT 0-0	Valerenga
07/08/22 Norway Eliteserien	Valerenga	4-0 HT 0-0	Aalesund

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	13	2	2	43	12	41
2	Viking FK	16	13	1	2	39	15	40
3	Tromso	16	10	4	2	32	17	34
4	Lillestrom	16	8	1	7	22	20	25
5	Molde	16	7	3	6	29	24	24
6	SK Brann	16	7	1	8	33	27	22
7	Sarpsborg	16	6	4	6	19	21	22
8	Ham-Kam	16	6	4	6	24	27	22
9	Rosenborg	16	6	3	7	23	21	21
10	Valerenga	16	6	2	8	23	29	20
11	Fredrikstad	16	6	2	8	17	27	20
12	KFUM	16	5	3	8	18	26	18
13	Sandefjord	16	4	3	9	13	22	15
14	Kristiansund BK	16	4	3	9	15	26	15
15	Aalesund	16	2	8	6	22	36	14
16	IK Start	17	2	4	11	16	38	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aalesund	Valerenga
Ham-Kam	1-1 D	0-3 L
Tromso	2-6 L	0-4 L
Kristiansund BK	3-0 W	3-1 W
SK Brann	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Aalesund (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Aalesund

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
02/08	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-6	9	1	L
26/07	Viking FK Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
16/07	Valerenga Norway Eliteserien	0-3	1-6	7	0	L
11/07	Molde Norway Eliteserien	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
27/06	Kristiansund BK Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
29/05	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	1-1	2-2	8	2	D
25/05	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
20/05	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
16/05	Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien	1-1	3-2	0	8	W

Valerenga

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien	0-1	1-2	8	1	L
31/07	Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
26/07	SK Brann Norway Eliteserien	3-0	3-2	6	5	W
16/07	Aalesund Norway Eliteserien	3-0	6-1	8	0	W
11/07	Tromso Norway Eliteserien	0-3	0-4	7	2	L
04/07	Fredrikstad Europe Friendlies	3-1	3-1	5	5	W
27/06	GAIS Club Friendly List	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
18/06	IFK Goteborg Club Friendly List	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
29/05	Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
25/05	IK Start Norway Eliteserien	0-2	0-2	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aalesund vs Valerenga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aalesund win (46%). Probabilities: Aalesund 46%, draw 23%, Valerenga 31%.

How many goals are expected in Aalesund vs Valerenga?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Aalesund 2.05 · Valerenga 1.68), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Valerenga?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.