Football · Norway Eliteserien · 16/08, 17:00
Prediction: Sarpsborg vs Sandefjord
Team pages: Sarpsborg · Sandefjord
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Sarpsborg2.04
Sandefjord0.86
1X2
Sarpsborg
Draw
Sandefjord
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Sarpsborg
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Sandefjord
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sarpsborg
4–2
Sandefjord
(6 last)
- Sandefjord0-2Sarpsborg
- Sarpsborg2-1Sandefjord
- Sandefjord3-2Sarpsborg
- Sarpsborg3-1Sandefjord
- Sarpsborg2-1Sandefjord
- Sandefjord4-1Sarpsborg
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sarpsborg (rating 1544 vs 1423).
- H2H favours Sarpsborg: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarpsborg | Sandefjord | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.8 | 2.8 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarpsborg 4–0–2 Sandefjord
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Norway Eliteserien | Sandefjord | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Sarpsborg |
| 14/09/25 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Sandefjord |
| 26/07/25 Norway Eliteserien | Sandefjord | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Sarpsborg |
| 07/05/25 Norway Cup | Sarpsborg | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Sandefjord |
| 04/08/24 Norway Eliteserien | Sarpsborg | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Sandefjord |
| 12/05/24 Norway Eliteserien | Sandefjord | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Sarpsborg |
Standings · Norway Eliteserien
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 12 | 41 |
| 2 | Viking FK | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 39 | 15 | 40 |
| 3 | Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 34 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 20 | 25 |
| 5 | Molde | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 24 | 24 |
| 6 | SK Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 22 |
| 7 | Sarpsborg | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 22 |
| 8 | Ham-Kam | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 27 | 22 |
| 9 | Rosenborg | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 21 |
| 10 | Valerenga | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 29 | 20 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 27 | 20 |
| 12 | KFUM | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 26 | 18 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 15 |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 26 | 15 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 16 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 36 | 14 |
| 16 | IK Start | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sarpsborg | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|
| Viking FK | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Molde | 3-3 D | 1-2 L |
| Ham-Kam | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Kristiansund BK | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Lillestrom | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Fredrikstad | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Sarpsborg (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarpsborg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 12/07 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | Lillestrom Europe Friendlies |
1-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | SK Brann Norway Eliteserien |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
2-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 8 | W |
Sandefjord
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 26/07 | Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 12/07 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Molde Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 25/05 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Lillestrom Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Aalesund Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarpsborg vs Sandefjord?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarpsborg win (64%). Probabilities: Sarpsborg 64%, draw 22%, Sandefjord 14%.
How many goals are expected in Sarpsborg vs Sandefjord?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Sarpsborg 2.04 · Sandefjord 0.86), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg vs Sandefjord?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.