Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: Malmo FF (W) vs Eskilstuna Utd (W)

Team pages: Malmo FF (W) · Eskilstuna Utd (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Malmo FF (W)1.88

Eskilstuna Utd (W)0.73

1X2

65% 21% 14%

Malmo FF (W) Draw Eskilstuna Utd (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Malmo FF (W) 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWLDWDWD

Eskilstuna Utd (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLLWWLWD

Head-to-head

Malmo FF (W) 2–1–0 Eskilstuna Utd (W) (3 last)

Eskilstuna Utd (W)1-1Malmo FF (W)
Eskilstuna Utd (W)0-1Malmo FF (W)
Malmo FF (W)3-1Eskilstuna Utd (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malmo FF (W) 1584 · Eskilstuna Utd (W) 1514

	Malmo FF (W)	Draw	Eskilstuna Utd (W)
Our model	64%	23%	13%
Market	66%	19%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malmo FF (W) (rating 1584 vs 1514).
H2H favours Malmo FF (W): 2-1-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malmo FF (W)	Eskilstuna Utd (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.4	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.9	2.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	1.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.38
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.64 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:10 +6’	1.36	4.75	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:40 +157’	1.38	4.66	6.64

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Malmo FF (W) 2–1–0 Eskilstuna Utd (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Malmo FF (W)
05/10/24 Sweden Elitettan	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Malmo FF (W)
04/05/24 Sweden Elitettan	Malmo FF (W)	3-1 HT 1-0	Eskilstuna Utd (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	16	15	0	1	47	12	45
2	Hammarby (W)	17	14	2	1	42	8	44
3	Malmo FF (W)	16	8	5	3	33	10	29
4	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	17	8	3	6	18	18	27
5	Vittsjö GIK (W)	17	7	4	6	22	19	25
6	Kristianstads (W)	17	7	4	6	28	27	25
7	AIK (W)	17	7	4	6	23	26	25
8	Pitea IF (W)	17	6	4	7	21	25	22
9	Brommapojkarna (W)	17	6	2	9	22	33	20
10	Djurgardens (W)	17	5	3	9	21	27	18
11	Vaxjo (W)	17	5	2	10	21	32	17
12	FC Rosengård (W)	17	3	5	9	18	23	14
13	IFK Norrkoping (W)	17	2	7	8	15	26	13
14	IK Uppsala (W)	17	1	3	13	13	58	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malmo FF (W)	Eskilstuna Utd (W)
BK Hacken (W)	1-1 D	0-6 L
Vaxjo (W)	4-0 W	0-1 L
IK Uppsala (W)	6-0 W	6-0 W
Pitea IF (W)	0-0 D	2-0 W
Kristianstads (W)	6-0 W	1-0 W
Djurgardens (W)	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Malmo FF (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malmo FF (W)

WDWWLDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
29/08	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
21/08	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
15/08	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	5-0	6-0	6	0	W
31/07	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
27/07	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
27/06	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-0	6-0	2	1	W
17/06	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
13/06	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-1	10	4	D
31/05	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	3-0	4	1	W

Eskilstuna Utd (W)

DDWLLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
28/08	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	5-0	6-0	14	1	W
22/08	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
15/08	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	0	1	W
08/08	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-0	1	0	W
02/08	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-6	4	0	L
24/06	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
18/06	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-0	5	1	W
13/06	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
30/05	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-0	8	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malmo FF (W) vs Eskilstuna Utd (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Malmo FF (W) win (65%). Probabilities: Malmo FF (W) 65%, draw 21%, Eskilstuna Utd (W) 14%.

How many goals are expected in Malmo FF (W) vs Eskilstuna Utd (W)?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Malmo FF (W) 1.88 · Eskilstuna Utd (W) 0.73), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Malmo FF (W) vs Eskilstuna Utd (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.