Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 13/09, 16:00
Prediction: Vaxjo (W) vs Hammarby (W)
Team pages: Vaxjo (W) · Hammarby (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.71Total
Vaxjo (W)0.86
Hammarby (W)2.86
1X2
Vaxjo (W)
Draw
Hammarby (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
0-2 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Vaxjo (W)
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Hammarby (W)
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Vaxjo (W)
1–1–4
Hammarby (W)
(6 last)
- Hammarby (W)5-0Vaxjo (W)
- Hammarby (W)2-2Vaxjo (W)
- Vaxjo (W)0-7Hammarby (W)
- Hammarby (W)4-1Vaxjo (W)
- Vaxjo (W)1-4Hammarby (W)
- Hammarby (W)1-2Vaxjo (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vaxjo (W) 1448 · Hammarby (W) 1597
| Vaxjo (W) | Draw | Hammarby (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| Market | 6% | 12% | 82% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby (W) (rating 1448 vs 1597).
- H2H favours Hammarby (W): 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vaxjo (W) | Hammarby (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.8 | 2.7 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/10/60% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5 | 2.8 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0 | 0.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vaxjo (W) 1–1–4 Hammarby (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan | Hammarby (W) | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Vaxjo (W) |
| 12/03/26 Sweden Cup Women | Hammarby (W) | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Vaxjo (W) |
| 28/09/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan | Vaxjo (W) | 0-7 HT 0-2 | Hammarby (W) |
| 23/03/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan | Hammarby (W) | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Vaxjo (W) |
| 02/11/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan | Vaxjo (W) | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Hammarby (W) |
| 08/06/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan | Hammarby (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Vaxjo (W) |
Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BK Hacken (W) | 17 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 48 | 13 | 46 |
| 2 | Hammarby (W) | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 42 | 8 | 44 |
| 3 | Malmo FF (W) | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 11 | 30 |
| 4 | Eskilstuna Utd (W) | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 27 |
| 5 | Vittsjö GIK (W) | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 25 |
| 6 | Kristianstads (W) | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 27 | 25 |
| 7 | AIK (W) | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 26 | 25 |
| 8 | Pitea IF (W) | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 22 |
| 9 | Brommapojkarna (W) | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 33 | 20 |
| 10 | Djurgardens (W) | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 27 | 18 |
| 11 | Vaxjo (W) | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 21 | 32 | 17 |
| 12 | FC Rosengård (W) | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 23 | 14 |
| 13 | IFK Norrkoping (W) | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 26 | 13 |
| 14 | IK Uppsala (W) | 17 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 58 | 6 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vaxjo (W) | Hammarby (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Pitea IF (W) | 0-2 L | 5-0 W |
| Malmo FF (W) | 0-4 L | 1-1 D |
| IFK Norrkoping (W) | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Hammarby (W) (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vaxjo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-2 | 0-4 | 12 | 1 | L |
| 22/08 | Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 14/08 | Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 07/08 | FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 31/07 | Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 24/06 | Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 18/06 | IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
4-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
Hammarby (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-0 | 2-0 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 21/08 | Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 16/08 | Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
4-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 31/07 | Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
3-0 | 5-0 | 14 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 25/06 | Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 17/06 | AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vaxjo (W) vs Hammarby (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Hammarby (W) win (80%). Probabilities: Vaxjo (W) 7%, draw 13%, Hammarby (W) 80%.
How many goals are expected in Vaxjo (W) vs Hammarby (W)?
The model expects 3.71 goals (Vaxjo (W) 0.86 · Hammarby (W) 2.86), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Vaxjo (W) vs Hammarby (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.