Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 13/09, 14:00

Prediction: Pitea IF (W) vs AIK (W)

Team pages: Pitea IF (W) · AIK (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Pitea IF (W)1.42

AIK (W)1.34

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Pitea IF (W) Draw AIK (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Pitea IF (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDDLLWDW

AIK (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWLLLD

Head-to-head

Pitea IF (W) 4–1–1 AIK (W) (6 last)

AIK (W)2-1Pitea IF (W)
AIK (W)0-1Pitea IF (W)
Pitea IF (W)2-0AIK (W)
AIK (W)0-0Pitea IF (W)
Pitea IF (W)5-3AIK (W)
AIK (W)0-1Pitea IF (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pitea IF (W) 1481 · AIK (W) 1482

	Pitea IF (W)	Draw	AIK (W)
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pitea IF (W): 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pitea IF (W)	AIK (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	3.3 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.55

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.81

Under 2.51.99

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.47 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:18 +6’	2.30	3.40	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:57 +27’	2.47	3.17	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pitea IF (W) 4–1–1 AIK (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	Pitea IF (W)
06/09/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Pitea IF (W)
30/03/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Pitea IF (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	AIK (W)
01/07/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	AIK (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Pitea IF (W)
27/06/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Pitea IF (W)	5-3 HT 3-1	AIK (W)
05/03/23 Sweden Cup Women	AIK (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Pitea IF (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	17	15	1	1	48	13	46
2	Hammarby (W)	17	14	2	1	42	8	44
3	Malmo FF (W)	17	8	6	3	34	11	30
4	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	17	8	3	6	18	18	27
5	Vittsjö GIK (W)	17	7	4	6	22	19	25
6	Kristianstads (W)	17	7	4	6	28	27	25
7	AIK (W)	17	7	4	6	23	26	25
8	Pitea IF (W)	17	6	4	7	21	25	22
9	Brommapojkarna (W)	17	6	2	9	22	33	20
10	Djurgardens (W)	17	5	3	9	21	27	18
11	Vaxjo (W)	17	5	2	10	21	32	17
12	FC Rosengård (W)	17	3	5	9	18	23	14
13	IFK Norrkoping (W)	17	2	7	8	15	26	13
14	IK Uppsala (W)	17	1	3	13	13	58	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pitea IF (W)	AIK (W)
Brommapojkarna (W)	1-1 D	1-0 W
IK Uppsala (W)	5-1 W	2-2 D
Hammarby (W)	0-5 L	1-4 L
BK Hacken (W)	1-4 L	1-4 L
Eskilstuna Utd (W)	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AIK (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pitea IF (W)

WLLDDLLWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-0	9	2	W
30/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-1	7	0	D
23/08	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	5-1	7	1	W
16/08	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-4	0-5	0	0	L
09/08	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-2	1-4	2	2	L
31/07	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
25/06	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-1	2	0	D
18/06	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-2	8	1	L
13/06	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-2	6	1	L
30/05	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-1	3	1	W

AIK (W)

DWLWLWLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
29/08	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
23/08	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-2	1-4	1	2	L
15/08	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-2	11	1	L
07/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
01/08	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-3	0-3	3	4	L
24/06	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
17/06	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-3	1-4	9	1	L
13/06	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	3-0	8	1	W
30/05	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-2	2-2	11	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pitea IF (W) vs AIK (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pitea IF (W) win (38%). Probabilities: Pitea IF (W) 38%, draw 27%, AIK (W) 35%.

How many goals are expected in Pitea IF (W) vs AIK (W)?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Pitea IF (W) 1.42 · AIK (W) 1.34), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Pitea IF (W) vs AIK (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.