Football · Brazil Serie A · 22/08, 23:30

Prediction: Internacional vs Atletico Mineiro

Team pages: Internacional · Atletico Mineiro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Internacional1.22

Atletico Mineiro0.95

1X2

42% 30% 28%

Internacional Draw Atletico Mineiro

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Internacional 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLDWLD

Atletico Mineiro 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDWDWDWW

Head-to-head

Internacional 1–1–4 Atletico Mineiro (6 last)

Atletico Mineiro1-0Internacional
Internacional0-0Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro2-0Internacional
Atletico Mineiro1-3Internacional
Internacional1-2Atletico Mineiro
Internacional0-2Atletico Mineiro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Internacional 1475 · Atletico Mineiro 1582

	Internacional	Draw	Atletico Mineiro
Our model	41%	32%	27%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Mineiro (rating 1475 vs 1582).
H2H favours Atletico Mineiro: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Internacional	Atletico Mineiro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.4	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:37 +5’	2.20	3.20	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional 1–1–4 Atletico Mineiro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	1-0 HT 1-0	Internacional
02/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro
13/06/25 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	2-0 HT 1-0	Internacional
27/10/24 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	1-3 HT 1-2	Internacional
27/06/24 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	1-2 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro
01/10/23 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	0-2 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	40	19	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	39	18	42
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	34	28	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	30	31	33
6	EC Bahia	22	8	9	5	29	25	33
7	Bragantino	22	9	5	8	27	23	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	24	20	32
9	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
10	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	35	33	30
11	Atletico Mineiro	21	8	5	8	27	27	29
12	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	22	33	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	24	27	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	24	30	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	23	27	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	29	35	22
18	Vasco da Gama	21	5	7	9	23	31	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	26	36	22
20	Chapecoense	21	1	7	13	20	43	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Internacional	Atletico Mineiro
Palmeiras	0-0 D	2-1 W
Corinthians	1-2 L	0-1 L
Bragantino	1-3 L	1-0 W
Vasco da Gama	4-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Mineiro (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Internacional

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
07/08	Corinthians Copa do Brasil	0-1	1-2	1	5	L
03/08	Corinthians Copa do Brasil	0-0	2-0	4	8	W
30/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
25/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	7	0	L
23/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
31/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-3	1	6	L
23/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
16/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-1	3	5	W
13/05	Athletic Club MG Copa do Brasil	2-1	3-2	3	2	W

Atletico Mineiro

LWWDWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	8	6	W
13/08	Bragantino Copa Sudamericana	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
08/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
05/08	EC Juventude Copa do Brasil	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
02/08	EC Juventude Copa do Brasil	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
27/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
31/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
28/05	Academia Puerto Cabello Copa Sudamericana	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
24/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	0	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Internacional vs Atletico Mineiro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional win (42%). Probabilities: Internacional 42%, draw 30%, Atletico Mineiro 28%.

How many goals are expected in Internacional vs Atletico Mineiro?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Internacional 1.22 · Atletico Mineiro 0.95), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Internacional vs Atletico Mineiro?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.