Football · USA MLS · 16/08, 01:30

Prediction: Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls

Team pages: Atlanta United · New York Red Bulls

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

Atlanta United2.16

New York Red Bulls1.5

1X2

52% 23% 25%

Atlanta United Draw New York Red Bulls

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atlanta United 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLLDLL

New York Red Bulls 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWDWLLW

Head-to-head

Atlanta United 2–2–2 New York Red Bulls (6 last)

New York Red Bulls2-3Atlanta United
New York Red Bulls2-0Atlanta United
Atlanta United0-0New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United2-1New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls2-2Atlanta United
New York Red Bulls4-0Atlanta United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlanta United 1476 · New York Red Bulls 1472

	Atlanta United	Draw	New York Red Bulls
Our model	52%	22%	26%
Market	51%	24%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlanta United	New York Red Bulls
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.8	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X4.00

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.87
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.10 ★
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.2% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:36 +1’	1.83	4.00	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:37 +1’	1.87	4.10	3.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United 2–2–2 New York Red Bulls

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/02/26 America Friendlies	New York Red Bulls	2-3	Atlanta United
01/06/25 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	2-0 HT 2-0	Atlanta United
09/03/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	0-0 HT 0-0	New York Red Bulls
06/10/24 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-1 HT 0-0	New York Red Bulls
22/09/24 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	2-2 HT 1-1	Atlanta United
25/06/23 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	4-0 HT 2-0	Atlanta United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	35	14	40
2	Inter Miami CF	18	11	5	2	45	32	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	28	23	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	45	44	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	7	4	7	29	27	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	29	39	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	26	29	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	30	47	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	26	28	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	24	32	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	24	35	16
15	Atlanta United	18	3	3	12	19	33	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlanta United	New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union	2-3 L	1-3 L
Charlotte FC	2-2 D	0-2 L
Columbus Crew	0-2 L	3-2 W
Orlando City SC	1-4 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atlanta United

WWLDLLLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	2-3	2	6	L
26/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
23/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
18/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
24/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
20/05	Orlando City SC USA US Open Cup	0-4	1-4	1	6	L
17/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
10/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
03/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	3-1	3	7	W
29/04	Charlotte FC USA US Open Cup	1-0	2-0	2	3	W

New York Red Bulls

LLLWWDWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
23/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
24/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
17/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
14/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
09/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
03/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-2	8	2	L
30/04	New York City FC USA US Open Cup	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
26/04	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-2	0-2	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlanta United win (52%). Probabilities: Atlanta United 52%, draw 23%, New York Red Bulls 25%.

How many goals are expected in Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls?

The model expects 3.66 goals (Atlanta United 2.16 · New York Red Bulls 1.5), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.